The richest and the rest

The 2021-22 English Premier League (EPL) season came to a close on May 22, with a cracker of a final day when many outcomes were finally decided. Unlike what had transpired in some past seasons, this year a lot was up for grabs on the final day.

Nerves were jangling at both ends of the table. The gulf between the rich clubs and the others in terms of resources and quality remains. Yet, in many ways, this season was more competitive than many in the past and it does appear that the coming season may prove even more so. This statement needs to be qualified in the light of many obvious facts.

Let’s begin at the top. Until there are some major changes in the form book, it is misleading to talk about the “big six” in the EPL — on the metric of form on the pitch. There’s actually a “big two” — Manchester City and Liverpool. In a repeat of what happened in the 2018-19 season, City finished a point ahead of Liverpool by winning its last game. Liverpool, though, has won the Carabao Cup and the FA Cup this year and go head-to-head with Real Madrid in the Champions League, with the final match on May 29.

More to the point is the bridge between these two clubs and the rest — City finished with 93 points and Liverpool with 92. In third place, Chelsea was 18 points behind the second-placed club.

Thus, after the “big two”, you could group four clubs in the second rung and, if things go right, all are capable of challenging for a Champions League finish. Chelsea led the pack this year with 74 points, but not far behind were Tottenham Hotspur with 71 and Arsenal with 69. Manchester United had a shambolic season finishing on 58, but still deserves to be in the group.

There are complications, though. Newcastle has become the world’s richest club after being taken over by a Saudi-led consortium. When this happened, it was struggling in the relegation zone. But after the appointment of Eddie Howe as manager it climbed the table to finish at 11th place with 49 points. Don’t be surprised if you see Newcastle in the Champions League spots next season — and they could be genuine title contenders in the not-too-distant future.

The last cannot be said of a clutch of clubs in the next tier, but each of them are capable of challenging for European places in a good year. This time around, West Ham led this group with 56 points and was followed by Leicester with 52. But don’t be fooled by this figure. Brendan Rodgers had a hard time with injuries and transitions, which meant Leicester had a poor start to the season. Next year could well see considerable improvement right from the start.

Three more clubs can be expected to make waves if they continue to show the kind of improvement they have done this time around. Under Graham Potter, Brighton was a revelation, finishing ninth on 51 points. A poor end to the season meant that Wolverhampton Wanderers finished 10th on the same number of points, but it has been transformed as an attacking force by its Portuguese manager Bruno Lage. Rounding off this trio is a revitalised Crystal Palace side, which finished at 12 on 48 points. The club has been transformed by new manager Patrick Vieira, who has made Roy Hodgson’s stodgier side an attacking threat.

Finally, one should not write off Aston Villa under new manager Steven Gerrard. With a little bit of luck, it could be going places.

In other words, at various levels the competition is fierce and it is not too difficult to imagine any one team transition to the tier above it with luck and commitment from all involved.

Also, expect relegation dogfights to be pretty serious, with Everton and Leeds now candidates to go down along with the newly promoted teams and a few others.

Which brings us to two big questions for the next season. With fierce competition at the top, will Manchester United’s new manager Erik Ten Hag, the fifth permanent appointee since Alex Ferguson retired, be able to revive the flagging club? United was lucky to sneak into Europe after a shambolic string of performances. Unless Ten Hag injects some order into the proceedings, Manchester United could easily be relegated into a mid-table, also-ran outfit for some time to come.

The Dutchman has a heavy responsibility on his shoulders as he plans a complete overhaul. But Thomas Tuchel at Chelsea and Antonio Conte at Spurs have both shown that a good manager can turn things around dramatically.

Finally, will we see some club break City and Liverpool’s grip on the title in the coming season? It’s unlikely that either Pep Guardiola or Jurgen Klopp will relinquish their authority, so don’t hold your breath.