Indranil Pan

With inflation risks rising, RBI signals a measured tightening cycle ahead

Looking at India's growth performance from the expenditure lens indicates a pickup in the private consumption expenditure to 6.9% YoY in Q3FY25 compared to 5.9% YoY in Q2FY25

The reason why the RBI till the August policy had its feet on the brakes is its assessment of inflation risks

Credit growth needs to be moderated, and the RBI has been taking steps to reduce banks' exposure to unsecured lending.

The RBI has calendarized its VRRR auction and stands ready to enhance its duration. This is the first sign of preparing the market for an eventual increase in the reverse repo rate.

With inflation pressures likely to remain intact, the other critical input for the RBI will be the global monetary policy conditions, especially in the US

While tax increases led to an increase in the prices of petroleum products, this could lead to broad-based cost push pressures through the transportation channel

With inflation remaining contained, RBI still has room for another 40 bps for Repo rate to go down

The current economic landscape RBI is fraught with managing confusing and sometimes contradictory objectives

The central bank might not be in any immediate position to deliver a rate cut, even as the first target of sub-eight per cent inflation for January 2015 is likely to be achieved

Nov IIP has surpassed market expectations, my expectations