Madan Sabnavis

Union Budget 2026 stays focused on fiscal prudence, targets a 4.3% deficit, sustains ₹12.2 trillion capex, and backs rare earths, freight corridors, waterways and data centres, writes Madan Sabnavis

On the whole, the Survey paints a positive picture for the economy as well as outlook, though cautions more on the external environment

At the global level, slower trade will also mean slower growth, especially for export-oriented economies, Sabnavis said. Back home, he feels that the MSMEs will be under pressure again

As Finance Minister Sitharaman has mentioned that the revenue foregone would be Rs 1 trillion, one can assume that it would lead to Rs 70,000 crore of consumption

The policy remains open-ended on the future possibility of rate cut, which sounds reasonable given that the future course of inflation is hard to gauge

Union Budget 2024-25 news: There has been some comfort provided to individuals who opt for the new income tax scheme as there is some rationalisation across the slabs

There are five issues that have been brought up in the Survey which requires discussion

Given the strong platform already constructed by the present government, it would require more fine tuning measures to take the economy ahead

Reserve Bank of India will have to continue to monitor the movements and be nimble to spot volatility in both directions and intervene selectively to reduce excess noise

The monthly per capita expenditure data points to shifts in consumption, but it should not be used for reconfiguring the Consumer Price Index

Budget 2023 has more or less maintained the ratio of size of the budget to GDP to around 15 per cent.

The Economic Survey 2023-24 is assuring and it affirms that we have completely regained lost ground, says Madan Sabnavis

Banks were challenged in 2022 by the sluggish growth in deposits, which have not kept pace with credit. One reason is that deposits, unlike debt mutual funds, do not offer any tax breaks

The rupee has been one of the best performing currencies and the RBI will be setting the goal post by its actions

While the impact on other currencies has been sharp with most of them depreciating, the rupee has done well, being somewhere in the middle

The efficacy of the central bank's steps will be seen in the coming days

The MPC pitched for a high number of 50 bps, which is significant because if combined with the inflation forecast, it indicates that more hikes are coming

The rate hike was expected in June, but clearly the central bank sees inflation path as being quite ominous to trigger such an action.

The monetary policy committee (MPC) has sprung some surprises even though the repo rate has been kept unchanged.

The share of consumption and government expenditure has come down in FY22, which is reflective of the economy not yet being fully back on track