Brent is likely to remain supported while Hormuz traffic remains impaired, Red Sea threats persist, and Russian refining capacity faces recurring attacks
Crude Oil market has moved beyond a simple war-premium story. It's now balancing three forces at once: geopolitical risk around Hormuz, refinery-led product tightness and softer macro-demand impulse.
The exit of UAE has certainly loosened the cartels grip over the pricing power and the Cartels kingpin Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar are fighting an open war to control the market
The Middle East is now entering a different kind of conflict-one driven not by military confrontation, but by the battle for market share in global oil markets.
Mohammed Imran, research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan has a bearish-to-neutral view on Brent through H2CY2026, with a base-case range of $68-72/bbl.
Shipping data firm Kpler estimates that daily transits may rise to around 40 vessels within the first month - less than half the pre-war average of 100, says Mohammed Imran, of Mirae Asset Sharekhan.
For now, the oil market remains at a crossroads-pulled in opposite directions by forces that are both powerful and persistent, with no clear resolution in sight
The near-term outlook for Brent crude through Q3 2026 is likely to remain range-bound in the $90-115/bbl band, with risks skewed slightly towards a higher floor price for crude oil
Gulf's flagship national oil companies have issued stark timelines. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that oil market will not normalise until 2027 if Hormuz disruptions persist past mid-June 2026.
WTI futures traded below $93 per barrel mid-week, near a five-week low, as markets weighed optimism over ongoing US-Iran negotiations against renewed military operations in southern Iran
The probability of US-Iran negotiations entering a more substantive phase is rising-every additional week of disruption deepens financial market stress that the White House cannot indefinitely absorb
The global oil market is increasingly reflecting second-order effects of the US-Iran conflict, now in its 73rd day, following Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz on February 28
If the conflict extends another eight weeks without a credible Hormuz reopening, expect Brent at $130-145 per barrel, with the World Bank's adverse scenario averaging $115 for the full year
Prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption may keep oil prices higher for longer, says Mohammed Imran of Mirae Asset Sharekhan. He forecasts Brent at $90 in Q4-CY26; risks skew to $120 on supply shock
The ceasefire has still not seen the normalcy resuming in the Strait, which raises concerns for demand destruction in the coming months as the scarcity has yet to fully materialise.
Brent futures are currently trading near $95/bbl after a 4.6 per cent correction, yet remain up 31 per cent since the start of the conflict, 56 per cent year-to-date
 "Mohammed Imran")
