For now, the oil market remains at a crossroads-pulled in opposite directions by forces that are both powerful and persistent, with no clear resolution in sight
The near-term outlook for Brent crude through Q3 2026 is likely to remain range-bound in the $90-115/bbl band, with risks skewed slightly towards a higher floor price for crude oil
Gulf's flagship national oil companies have issued stark timelines. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that oil market will not normalise until 2027 if Hormuz disruptions persist past mid-June 2026.
WTI futures traded below $93 per barrel mid-week, near a five-week low, as markets weighed optimism over ongoing US-Iran negotiations against renewed military operations in southern Iran
The probability of US-Iran negotiations entering a more substantive phase is rising-every additional week of disruption deepens financial market stress that the White House cannot indefinitely absorb
The global oil market is increasingly reflecting second-order effects of the US-Iran conflict, now in its 73rd day, following Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz on February 28
If the conflict extends another eight weeks without a credible Hormuz reopening, expect Brent at $130-145 per barrel, with the World Bank's adverse scenario averaging $115 for the full year
Prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption may keep oil prices higher for longer, says Mohammed Imran of Mirae Asset Sharekhan. He forecasts Brent at $90 in Q4-CY26; risks skew to $120 on supply shock
The ceasefire has still not seen the normalcy resuming in the Strait, which raises concerns for demand destruction in the coming months as the scarcity has yet to fully materialise.
Brent futures are currently trading near $95/bbl after a 4.6 per cent correction, yet remain up 31 per cent since the start of the conflict, 56 per cent year-to-date
The risk-reward profile has shifted decisively to the downside as de-escalation signals intensify, raising the prospect of a rapid $20-30/bbl correction as the geopolitical risk premium unwinds
A broader escalation-including the potential closure of the Red Sea chokepoint by Yemen's Houthis-would likely push both Brent and WTI to new cycle highs
Three weeks into the most consequential energy shock since the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the full weight of what the Middle East war means for Asia is only beginning to crystallise
 "Mohammed Imran")
