Mohammed Imran

The probability of US-Iran negotiations entering a more substantive phase is rising-every additional week of disruption deepens financial market stress that the White House cannot indefinitely absorb

In the near term, oil markets remain pulled between tightening supply fundamentals and expectations of an eventual geopolitical breakthrough

The global oil market is increasingly reflecting second-order effects of the US-Iran conflict, now in its 73rd day, following Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz on February 28

If the conflict extends another eight weeks without a credible Hormuz reopening, expect Brent at $130-145 per barrel, with the World Bank's adverse scenario averaging $115 for the full year

Prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption may keep oil prices higher for longer, says Mohammed Imran of Mirae Asset Sharekhan. He forecasts Brent at $90 in Q4-CY26; risks skew to $120 on supply shock

The crude oil market remains on a knife-edge. Brent's surge above $105 reflects genuine supply risks from Hormuz disruptions.

The ceasefire has still not seen the normalcy resuming in the Strait, which raises concerns for demand destruction in the coming months as the scarcity has yet to fully materialise.

The impact of the war on energy infrastructure is considerably more severe than futures prices currently imply

Brent futures are currently trading near $95/bbl after a 4.6 per cent correction, yet remain up 31 per cent since the start of the conflict, 56 per cent year-to-date

Mohammed Imran of Mirae Asset Sharekhan expects that Brent and WTI floor prices would remain elevated at pre-war levels

The risk-reward profile has shifted decisively to the downside as de-escalation signals intensify, raising the prospect of a rapid $20-30/bbl correction as the geopolitical risk premium unwinds

A broader escalation-including the potential closure of the Red Sea chokepoint by Yemen's Houthis-would likely push both Brent and WTI to new cycle highs

Mohammed Imran, research analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, maintains the Q2 2026 Brent target of $110/bbl and WTI at $100

The damaged LNG trains represent a structural hole in global supply that no amount of diplomatic goodwill can close before the 2026-27 winter

Three weeks into the most consequential energy shock since the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the full weight of what the Middle East war means for Asia is only beginning to crystallise

Oil prices rose sharply after Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, said that Tehran could leverage the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz and warned of attacks on Gulf Arab states

Rising oil prices and a stronger dollar are limiting gold's safe-haven appeal as markets reassess Fed rate cut expectations

Silver prices are expected to remain volatile as surging oil lifts the dollar and reduces Fed rate-cut hopes, while Iran war tensions keep markets on edge

Silver price outlook: Silver faces selling pressure amid strong US data, firm dollar and rising yields. The metal may test $77 support if weakness continues, said Mirae Asset Sharekhan analyst

The "war premium" has pushed Brent crude toward the $100 per barrel threshold, reigniting stagflation ary fears that central banks thought they had conquered