Mohammed Imran

The recent surge in oil prices to a 4.25-month high, with Brent briefly touching $70.50, is largely driven by a shift in US policy

Crude oil outlook: Geopolitical tensions have driven crude oil prices to a three-month high, with WTI trading just under $63 and Brent approaching the $67 resistance level

While Brent should retain a geopolitical risk premium, it is similarly forecasted to retreat toward $56-$57/b as supply growth from non-OPEC+ producers outweighs softening demand

Crude oil prices are holding firm this week as tensions between Iran and the US temporarily ease after Donald Trump indicated he does not intend to launch military action.

Global inventories are expected to build by an average of 2.8 mbpd through the first half of the year, marking the largest surplus in recent memory

The current upward trajectory is primarily driven by a toxic mix of heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East, infrastructure disruptions in the Caspian region, and significant capital inflows

Mirae Asset Sharekhan expects global oil market to be in surplus for a pro-longed period. It predicts WTI crude oil to hit $48 per barrel-mark in 2026

Oil price outlook: The most significant downward pressure on oil prices this month stems from renewed optimism regarding the conflict in Ukraine.

Forecasts from major energy bodies suggest a trend toward inventory builds and moderated prices, contingent on geopolitical stability and production policies

The global surplus has increased from 0.5 bmpd to around 1.5 mbpd in the last six months

Global oil prices have shown remarkable resilience amid softer economic data from two major consumers: the US and China

WTI plunged 2.5 per cent over the past five trading sessions to $58.05/bbl, shedding 5.5 per cent in the last month and more than 20 per cent since mid-June highs near $73/bbl

Oil price outlook: While the outlook for the oil market remains bearish with expectations for a large surplus in 2026, robust refinery margins offer counterbalance

Mohammed Imran, research analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan believes that global market will remain in surplus of 0.5-0.7mbpd in 2026

Crude oil Outlook: WTI to trade $57-$62/bbl near-term, with upside to $65+ on Russian disruptions. Bearish base case holds unless geopolitics escalate.

Global crude oil supplies are poised for a deepening glut, with prices likely to decline toward $50 per barrel by mid-2026 amid sluggish demand growth and robust production

Oil prices are projected to trade in a broader $58-$64 range in the coming weeks

Opec+ is unwinding cuts, restoring 2.72 million barrels per day by November, with Iraq adding 500 thousand barrels per day via Kurdish pipelines, worsening a 0.5 million barrels per day surplus

The decline reflects a US-led trade war, exacerbating oversupply amid Opec+'s 2.72 mb/d restoration and a 0.5 mb/d surplus

WTI crude oil prices opened weaker, tumbling over 4 per cent in early trading, a sharp reversal from the prior week's modest 2.2 per cent.