Mohammed Imran

Mohammed Imran of Mirae Asset Sharekhan said that oil market is entering a highly sensitive phase as geopolitical risks are weighed against the possibility of a breakthrough in the US-Iran crisis.

Overall standoff would see broader range of Brent range of $105-120, a deal could unwind risk and Brent could moderate to, a $95-110 "crunch" remains the base case.

The White House has been leaning on regional channels to cool prices, ahead of the Mid-Term election on November 3, says Mohammed Imran of Mirae Asset Sharekhan.

Brent climbed back above $113 a barrel after a deadly drone strike on Saudi Aramco's Shaybah field, highlights Mohammed Imran of Mirae Asset Sharekhan.

Mohammed Imran of Mirae Asset Sharekhan expects Brent to become more volatile ahead of the US midterm election. Brent futures may test the resistance of $120/b in the near term.

Middle East crude exports have rebounded to 17.5 million bpd, or about 98 per cent of pre-war levels. However, the recovery in refined products is much weaker.

Crude oil flows from the Strait of Hormuz have increased to average above 10 mbpd as per the shipping tanker tracker data.

The global cost of carrying crude oil which used to be around 1-2 per cent of the total contract value has now faring 20-25 per cent to Asian refiners.

Several shipping tracking companies are reporting improved oil flows from the South side of the Strait of Hormuz, which comes under Omani control.

Average crude oil prices will stay significantly higher than the previous forecast, as the recent turn of events would shrink global inventories.

Mirae Asset Sharekhan believes that the crude oil market balance is likely to remain in deficit through 2026.

US refineries are running near maximum capacity at 97.4 per cent, supported by strong export demand.

The main source of uncertainty remains the US-Iran standoff and the continuing disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.

Mirae Asset Sharekhan said that in the absence of any resolution between the US and Iran, each passing week would see floor prices increasing for global oil prices.

Global refining capacity has effectively fallen by close to 10 per cent, or about 7-8 mbpd.

We hold a bullish stance on crude oil, with Brent expected to average around $80 if the war is not prolonged, but if we see Hormuz disruption until mid-September, Brent may average $90 by year-end.

Near-term oil prices are likely to remain extremely volatile. Prices could react sharply to any suggestion that Washington and Tehran are moving toward peace, although we remain doubtful.

For investors and corporates, the prudent strategy is to treat oil not as a one-directional price trade but as a geopolitical volatility asset

Brent is likely to remain supported while Hormuz traffic remains impaired, Red Sea threats persist, and Russian refining capacity faces recurring attacks

Crude Oil market has moved beyond a simple war-premium story. It's now balancing three forces at once: geopolitical risk around Hormuz, refinery-led product tightness and softer macro-demand impulse.