Prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption may keep oil prices higher for longer, says Mohammed Imran of Mirae Asset Sharekhan. He forecasts Brent at $90 in Q4-CY26; risks skew to $120 on supply shock
The ceasefire has still not seen the normalcy resuming in the Strait, which raises concerns for demand destruction in the coming months as the scarcity has yet to fully materialise.
Brent futures are currently trading near $95/bbl after a 4.6 per cent correction, yet remain up 31 per cent since the start of the conflict, 56 per cent year-to-date
The risk-reward profile has shifted decisively to the downside as de-escalation signals intensify, raising the prospect of a rapid $20-30/bbl correction as the geopolitical risk premium unwinds
A broader escalation-including the potential closure of the Red Sea chokepoint by Yemen's Houthis-would likely push both Brent and WTI to new cycle highs
Three weeks into the most consequential energy shock since the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the full weight of what the Middle East war means for Asia is only beginning to crystallise
Oil prices rose sharply after Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, said that Tehran could leverage the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz and warned of attacks on Gulf Arab states
Silver prices are expected to remain volatile as surging oil lifts the dollar and reduces Fed rate-cut hopes, while Iran war tensions keep markets on edge
Silver price outlook: Silver faces selling pressure amid strong US data, firm dollar and rising yields. The metal may test $77 support if weakness continues, said Mirae Asset Sharekhan analyst
The "war premium" has pushed Brent crude toward the $100 per barrel threshold, reigniting stagflation ary fears that central banks thought they had conquered
In an extreme conflict scenario, Brent could feasibly spike above $100/bbl, as the market accounts for the loss of Iranian supply and the increased costs of rerouting global flows
Crude oil trades near 7-month highs as US-Iran tensions sustain a $5-$6 risk premium. Analyst explains how Strait of Hormuz, Opec+ decisions, and current Brent oil prices shape oil market outlook
Oil prices are at six-month highs as US-Iran tensions escalate. Brent crude is near $72 on fears of supply disruption and risks around the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts see higher oil prices ahead
The US has strengthened its military presence across the Middle East to increase pressure on Iran, while Iran continues to assert its stance on retaining the right to pursue nuclear capabilities
 "Mohammed Imran")
