Mohammed Imran

The global cost of carrying crude oil which used to be around 1-2 per cent of the total contract value has now faring 20-25 per cent to Asian refiners.

Several shipping tracking companies are reporting improved oil flows from the South side of the Strait of Hormuz, which comes under Omani control.

Average crude oil prices will stay significantly higher than the previous forecast, as the recent turn of events would shrink global inventories.

Mirae Asset Sharekhan believes that the crude oil market balance is likely to remain in deficit through 2026.

US refineries are running near maximum capacity at 97.4 per cent, supported by strong export demand.

The main source of uncertainty remains the US-Iran standoff and the continuing disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.

Mirae Asset Sharekhan said that in the absence of any resolution between the US and Iran, each passing week would see floor prices increasing for global oil prices.

Global refining capacity has effectively fallen by close to 10 per cent, or about 7-8 mbpd.

We hold a bullish stance on crude oil, with Brent expected to average around $80 if the war is not prolonged, but if we see Hormuz disruption until mid-September, Brent may average $90 by year-end.

Near-term oil prices are likely to remain extremely volatile. Prices could react sharply to any suggestion that Washington and Tehran are moving toward peace, although we remain doubtful.

For investors and corporates, the prudent strategy is to treat oil not as a one-directional price trade but as a geopolitical volatility asset

Brent is likely to remain supported while Hormuz traffic remains impaired, Red Sea threats persist, and Russian refining capacity faces recurring attacks

Crude Oil market has moved beyond a simple war-premium story. It's now balancing three forces at once: geopolitical risk around Hormuz, refinery-led product tightness and softer macro-demand impulse.

The exit of UAE has certainly loosened the cartels grip over the pricing power and the Cartels kingpin Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar are fighting an open war to control the market

The Middle East is now entering a different kind of conflict-one driven not by military confrontation, but by the battle for market share in global oil markets.

Mohammed Imran, research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan has a bearish-to-neutral view on Brent through H2CY2026, with a base-case range of $68-72/bbl.

Shipping data firm Kpler estimates that daily transits may rise to around 40 vessels within the first month - less than half the pre-war average of 100, says Mohammed Imran, of Mirae Asset Sharekhan.

The path of least resistance for Brent over the next two quarters appears skewed to the downside, with Brent prices likely drifting below $90/bbl

For now, the oil market remains at a crossroads-pulled in opposite directions by forces that are both powerful and persistent, with no clear resolution in sight

The near-term outlook for Brent crude through Q3 2026 is likely to remain range-bound in the $90-115/bbl band, with risks skewed slightly towards a higher floor price for crude oil