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Mohammed Imran is a research analyst with Sharekhan as senior team leader for the past 10-plus years.
Mohammed Imran is a research analyst with Sharekhan as senior team leader for the past 10-plus years.
Global crude oil supplies are poised for a deepening glut, with prices likely to decline toward $50 per barrel by mid-2026 amid sluggish demand growth and robust production
Oil prices are projected to trade in a broader $58-$64 range in the coming weeks
Opec+ is unwinding cuts, restoring 2.72 million barrels per day by November, with Iraq adding 500 thousand barrels per day via Kurdish pipelines, worsening a 0.5 million barrels per day surplus
The decline reflects a US-led trade war, exacerbating oversupply amid Opec+'s 2.72 mb/d restoration and a 0.5 mb/d surplus
WTI crude oil prices opened weaker, tumbling over 4 per cent in early trading, a sharp reversal from the prior week's modest 2.2 per cent.
Crude oil prices continue to trade within a broader range of $5-$7, reflecting the persistent tug-of-war between supply excess and geopolitical flare-ups
Brent crude faces limited upside above $70, as higher prices may dampen Chinese demand, while increased OPEC+ production is helping offset geopolitical risks
Since the conclusion of the Iran-Israel conflict, oil prices have retreated and stabilised within a broader trading range of around $6 per barrel
Geopolitical developments are a primary driver of market uncertainty. The Trump-Putin talks could either ease concerns over US sanctions on Russian oil or escalate tensions if negotiations falter.
Oil price outlook: Crude oil prices are likely to remain supported by geopolitical uncertainty and tightening inventories in the near term
Oil prices: A meaningful upside in oil prices seems limited as the recent rally has been driven more by geopolitical risks than by fundamental demand
Oil markets may face an oversupply in the second half of 2025, alongside potentially weakened demand due to Trump's inclination towards universal tariffs
Oil price outlook: Oil prices have declined 17 per cent on a year-to-date basis, with April marking 18 per cent fall, the biggest monthly drop in prices since November 2021
Crude prices have had the most volatile week in four years as the prices tumbled over 20 per cent in 4 trading sessions amidst the trade war turmoil
Oil prices: The 90-day relief on reciprocal tariffs could see crude oil prices edging a bit higher towards $65. However, overall, we expect prices to trade range bound between $65-$58
The oil fundamentals have swiftly moved into bullish zone amid fear of sanction on Iran and Venezuela getting stricter from the Whitehouse, Crude oil and gasoline prices on Monday
Oil prices have recorded seven straight weekly declines since Donald Trump took office on January 20
Oil price today: Crude oil prices clocked the biggest intraday rally in four months on Monday, driven on the news of 10 per cent tariffs imposed by Whitehouse on Canadian crude oil and products
On Wednesday, Brent crude was down around 1.2 per cent to $76.16/bbl, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell around, or 1.05 per cent, to $73.47/bbl
We remain bearish on oil prices for 2025, although Opec+ extension may hold prices from steep fall in Q1-2025