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Myanmar's fractured reality

From colonial borders to civil war, Myanmar's military-run elections reveal a fragmented state whose instability is reshaping India's northeast and the regional balance of power

5 min read
Updated On: Feb 10 2026 | 2:15 AM IST
Mohammad Asif Khan
Myanmar's junta chief Min Aung Hlaing walks inside Zayarthiri polling station to vote, on the day of the general elections in Naypyitaw, Myanmar, December 28, 2025 (Photo: Reuters)

Myanmar's junta chief Min Aung Hlaing walks inside Zayarthiri polling station to vote, on the day of the general elections in Naypyitaw, Myanmar, December 28, 2025 (Photo: Reuters)

In his book Colonial Policy and Practice (1948), British civil servant J S Furnivall wrote about how colonial powers created artificial divisions that did not correspond to existing ethnic, cultural, and social patterns.
  One such example was the separation of Burma, now Myanmar, from British India in 1937, which divided areas along the Patkai mountains, separating India’s north-eastern provinces from Burma; it disrupted patterns of kinship and trade that had existed for centuries.
  The history of these borders continues to influence Myanmar’s politics to this day, as the General Min Aung Hlaing-led military junta, which came to power following a coup in February 2021, conducted general elections.
  “These elections neither resolve Myanmar’s internal crisis nor provide a credible basis for long-term stability,” Sreeparna Banerjee, associate fellow at the think-tank Observer Research Foundation, said. “Insecurity, weak local governance, and uncertainty over political authority continue to stall progress.” 

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Why Myanmar's junta plans elections during an ongoing nationwide civil war

For context, the military government in Myanmar controls less than 21-30 per cent of the country’s area, which includes its capital, Naypyidaw, and major cities like Yangon and Mandalay. The rest of the country, including borderlands, is controlled by a complex mix of ethnic armed rebel groups and new factions.
  According to reports, around 67 of the country’s 330 townships have been completely left out of the elections as polling stations could not be established due to active conflict situations. On January 26, after the final phase of voting, the military-associated Union Solidarity and Development Party claimed they had won the elections, having dominated in most of the electoral seats they ran for.
  The Association of South East Asian Nations (where Myanmar is a member) refused to endorse and accredit the elections because of the junta’s failure to follow the five-point plan that the bloc recommended for the resolution of the crisis in 2021.
In 2024, Myanmar’s rebel forces seized large swathes of territory, and the junta regime looked about to collapse. But the military’s air power, along with disoriented opposition, enabled them to regroup and hold on to power.
  There is little doubt that Myanmar’s internal strife and conflict has spilled over into India’s northeast through the porous 1,643-kilometre-long border they share. This has led to an influx of refugees, drugs, and weapons.
  The region lies at the heart of the “Golden Triangle”, which extends to parts of Myanmar, Laos, and Thailand, and is notorious for opium cultivation and drug trade.
  Most of the border on Myanmar’s side is currently controlled by different rebel groups like the Arakan Army, the People’s Defence Force, and the Chin resistance fighters.
  This is a complex situation for India, which has had limited engagement with the rebel groups to ensure stability.
“In a divided Myanmar, practical border management requires engagement with whoever exercises control on the ground,” Rajiv Bhatia, former Indian ambassador to Myanmar, said. “India deals with whoever is in power; engagement is recognition of political reality, not endorsement.”
  The Indian government has considered maintaining the Free Movement Regime (FMR), which permits people residing along the border to travel up to 16 km across either side without a visa. This has allowed ethnic groups on both sides to maintain longstanding ties. But concerns regarding the spillover of ethnic violence to states like Manipur, which has seen brutal conflict since May 2023, has left the FMR’s future uncertain.
  Prolonged instability also puts India’s connecting projects under its “Act East Policy” at risk. The Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway run through areas now outside junta control and have faced delays.  
“Without stability and cooperation on the ground, progress is extremely difficult,” Bhatia said. 
Currently, China is the most dominant foreign power in Myanmar’s civil war. While keeping close ties with the military leadership, it maintains links with some ethnic armed groups.
  Most of its leverage stems from the infrastructure projects through the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), such as the Kyaukphyu deep sea port. The CMEC allows China to operate oil and gas pipelines connecting its Yunnan province to the Bay of Bengal, effectively bypassing the Strait of Malacca through its land border to gain access to the Indian Ocean.
  “Over the past four years, China’s role has clearly expanded. It engages with the Myanmar government, maintains links with certain rebel groups, and often acts as a mediator. China has also been supportive of the present electoral process,” Bhatia said. “Neighbours who wish to remain relevant in Myanmar must come to terms with China’s growing footprint.”
  In summary, the elections are less of a democratic exercise than an attempt to give the battlefield a political form. “At best, they may lead to a limited, disciplined, and controlled form of democracy,” Bhatia said.
  Nearly eight decades after Furnivall wrote about fragmented political orders, Myanmar’s elections reflect the endurance of these lived realities. 
 
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Written By :

Mohammad Asif Khan

Mohammad Asif Khan is a Senior Correspondent at Business Standard, where he covers defence, security, and strategic affairs.
First Published: Feb 10 2026 | 2:15 AM IST

In this article : Myanmar

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