Covid-19: India lost 2.6 years' life expectancy between 2019 and 2020

The study found that the decline was more pronounced among females (3.1 years) compared to males (2.1 years)

In the aftermath of Covid-19, life expectancy saw a decline, with socially-disadvantaged groups experiencing the most significant losses.

India lost 2.6 years in life expectancy between 2019 and 2020, greater than high-income countries, according to a research paper titled ‘Large and unequal life expectancy declines during the Covid-19 pandemic in India in 2020’ published in Science Advances on July 19. 

The study conducted by Aashish Gupta, Payal Hathi, Murad Banaji, Prankur Gupta, Ridhi Kashyap, Vipul Paikra, Kanika Sharma, Anmol Somanchi, Nikkil Sudharsanan and Sanigta Vyas found that the decline was more pronounced among females (3.1 years) compared to males (2.1 years) (chart 1).

The study uses data from the National Family Health Survey 2019-21 (NFHS-5) and analyses households from 14 states and union territories (UTs), representing one-fourth of India's population. The NFHS survey was conduced in two phases and the study uses phase 2 data (households interviewed in 2021 specifically), explains Gupta. "The NFHS asks a question on deaths of household members since 2017, which allows to estimate 2019 and 2020 mortality for the same set of households." 

The decline in life expectancy was higher among young individuals and those aged 50-60, highlights the paper.

It said, “Even though absolute increases in mortality were highest in the oldest ages, mortality increases in the younger ages contributed substantially to life expectancy losses because life expectancy is more sensitive to early-life mortality.”

The increase in mortality in the age group 0-19 and 60-79 among females contributed most to the fall in life expectancy.

For males, it was the 40-59 age group (chart 2). In high-income countries, the decline was primarily due to “mortality increases above age 60, and especially above age 80.”

Like the unequal impact on gender, some social groups experienced higher losses than others.

Muslims saw the largest decline from 68.8 years in 2019 to 63.4 years in 2020, a loss of 5.4 years. Scheduled tribes (STs) and Scheduled castes (SCs) followed with reductions of 4.1 years and 2.7 years, respectively.

“Since we cannot distinguish between deaths from different causes, it is not clear whether differences across social groups are coming from direct effects of Covid (and potentially lower access to health care), indirect effects arising from the disruptions associated with lockdown, changes in marginalisation and discrimination, or other factors. More research would be needed to distinguish between these,” said Vyas.  

For other backward classes (OBCs) and “high caste Hindus”, the decline was 1.3 years each (chart 3).

Among Muslims, the loss was higher for females at 6.6 years than 4.6 years for males.

Similarly, among SCs, females lost 4.6 years compared to 1.1 years for males. Within STs, however, it was higher for males (5.4 years) than females (2.7 years). Among other backward classes and "high caste Hindus", the loss was higher for females of 1.9 years each. It was 0.7 years and 0.9 years for males in other backward classes and "high caste Hindus", respectively.