Explore Business Standard
The four-month monsoon season has ended with India receiving "normal" rainfall -- 820 mm against a long-period average of 868.6 mm -- with positive factors countering the effect of El Nino conditions, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Saturday. Rainfall between 94 per cent and 106 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) is considered normal. However, normal cumulative rainfall over the country during the monsoon season doesn't mean even spatial and temporal spread of precipitation. The Indian monsoon refers to inherent fluctuations and changes that occur over time due to various natural factors. This is called natural variability. Research, however, shows climate change is making the monsoon more variable. Increased variability means more extreme weather and dry spells. IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said with positive factors countering the effect of El Nino, the 2023 monsoon ended with 94.4 per cent cumulative rainfall, which is considered "normal".
A day after private weather forecasting agency Skymet predicted a below normal monsoon for 2017, another private company, Weather Risk Management Services (WRMS) said that as per its March end reading, southwest monsoon this year is expected to be close to the long period average though slightly on the negative side.If inferred correctly this would mean that monsoon in 2017 as per WRMS could be lower than the long period average of 887 millimeters. The agency would come up with further forecast later during the year.It said that the evolution of ENSO from a cool phase to warm phase (El Nino) is likely to have a moderate negative impact on the southwest monsoon precipitation over different regions of the country.Monday, Skymet said that monsoon 2017 is likely to 'below normal' across the country at 95 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). The state-run India Meteorological Department (IMD) is expected to come out with its first official forecast of 2017 southwest monsoon next ...