Markets see an 85 per cent chance of a quarter-point increase as hotter inflation and oil above $100 test Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's stance on rates and forward guidance
3 decisions, starting with the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and followed on successive days by peers in the UK and Japan, may recast the global monetary policy landscape for rest of 2026 and beyond
Domestically, the dollar was whipsawed by a shifting Fed outlook through the week, leaving gold caught between a structurally softer greenback and rising rate-hike probability.
Asian shares rose as investors awaited key US jobs data, while the yen rallied 2.6% this week after Fed Governor Christopher Waller eased fears of a rate hike
The dollar held firm near a two-week high after Kevin Warsh's hawkish remarks lifted expectations of a September rate hike, while the yen slipped below 160 per dollar
Economists estimate the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday will show a 55,000 increase in payrolls after an unexpected dip in July employment
Markets expect the Fed will raise rates in December as inflation remains elevated, while a sharp rise in bond yields indicates that investors are also pricing in some chance of a September move
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is under pressure to offer clearer guidance on interest rates and inflation at Jackson Hole, as investors assess sticky price pressures and the outlook for monetary policy
A senior Federal Reserve official has warned that lower- and middle-income Americans are struggling to make ends meet, while the central bank may need to raise interest rates if inflation stays high
The RBI's decision to hold rates reflects easing inflation risks for now, but rising price pressures could warrant policy tightening in the coming months
The Fed's decision to hold rates while signalling a hawkish stance has heightened uncertainty, leaving investors to navigate volatile stock and bond markets without clear forward guidance
Warsh, who took over as Fed chair in May, has said he has "no tolerance" for inflation that has remained above the central bank's 2 per cent target for more than five years
Fed policy preview: The bigger risk for the market lies not in the rate decision itself but in the possibility of a more hawkish tone than markets currently anticipate.
The Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan face key policy decisions as rising oil prices, inflation risks and tariffs cloud the global economic outlook
