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From Wall Street trading floors to the Federal Reserve to economists sipping coffee in their home offices, the first Friday morning of the month typically brings a quiet hush around 8:30 am eastern as everyone awaits the Labor Department's crucial monthly jobs report. But with the government shut down, no information was released Friday about hiring in September. The interruption in the data has occurred at a particularly uncertain time, when policymakers at the Federal Reserve and Wall Street investors would need more data on the economy, rather than less. Hiring has ground nearly to a halt, threatening to drag down the broader economy. Yet at the same time, consumers particularly higher-income earners are still spending and some businesses are ramping up investments in data centres developing artificial intelligence models. Whether that is enough to revive hiring remains to be seen. It's the first time since a government shutdown in 2013 that the jobs report has been delayed. .
The government shutdown that began Wednesday will deprive policymakers and investors of economic data vital to their decision-making at a time of unusual uncertainty about the direction of the US economy. The absence will be felt almost immediately, as the government's monthly jobs report scheduled for release Friday will likely be delayed. A weekly report on the number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits a proxy for layoffs that is typically published on Thursdays will also be postponed. If the shutdown is short-lived, it won't be very disruptive. But if the release of economic data is delayed for several weeks or longer, it could pose challenges, particularly for the Federal Reserve. The Fed is grappling with where to set a key interest rate at a time of conflicting signals, with inflation running above its 2 per cent target and hiring nearly ground to a halt, driving the unemployment rate higher in August. The Fed typically cuts this rate when unemployment rises, but ...
The monthly jobs report is already closely-watched on Wall Street and in Washington but has taken on a new importance after President Donald Trump on Friday fired the official who oversees it. Trump claimed that June's employment figures were "RIGGED" to make him and other Republicans "look bad". Yet he provided no evidence and even the official Trump had appointed in his first term to oversee the report, William Beach, condemned the firing of Erika McEntarfer, the director of the Bureau of Labour Statistics appointed by former President Joe Biden. The firing followed Friday's jobs report that showed hiring was weak in July and had come to nearly a standstill in May and June, right after Trump rolled out sweeping tariffs. Economists and Wall Street investors have long considered the job figures reliable, with share prices and bond yields often reacting sharply when they are released. Yet Friday's revisions were unusually large -- the largest, outside of a recession, in five decades.
US hiring is slowing sharply as President Donald Trump's erratic and radical trade policies paralyse businesses and raise doubts about the outlook for the world's largest economy. US employers added just 73,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported Friday, well short of the 115,000 expected. Worse, revisions shaved a stunning 258,000 jobs off May and June payrolls. And the unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.2% as Americans dropped out of the labour force and the ranks of the unemployed rose by 221,000. A notable deterioration in US labour market conditions appears to be underway,' said Scott Anderson, chief US economist at BMO Capital Markets. We have been forecasting this since the tariff and trade war erupted this spring, and more restrictive immigration restrictions were put in place. Overall, this report highlights the risk of a harder landing for the labour market.' Economists have been warning that the rift with every US trading partner will begin to appear this ..
US job openings rose unexpectedly in May, a sign that the American labour market remains resilient in the face of high borrowing costs and uncertainty over US economic policy. US employers posted 7.8 million vacancies in May, The Labour Department reported Tuesday, up from 7.4 million in April. Economists had expected a slight decrease to 7.3 million. The number of Americans quitting their job a sign of confidence in their prospects rose modestly, and layoffs fell. Openings are high by historical standards but have come down sharply since peaking at a record 12.1 million in March 2022. The US job market has steadily decelerated from hiring boom of 2021-2023 when the economy bounced back from COVID-19 lockdowns. The unexpectedly strong post-pandemic recovery ignited inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark interest rate 11 times in 2022 and 2023. The higher borrowing costs have gradually cooled the labour market, and President Donald Trump's policy of taxin