Coffee Board, planters differ on production estimates

The Coffee Board’s estimates of 322,000 tonnes of coffee production (post-blossom estimates) for crop year 2011-12 beginning October is unlikely to be achieved as bumper crop in Robusta for two consecutive years would not be possible, said industry analysts.

“Last year, we saw a bumper Robusta crop and going by the past history we can conclude that it would not be possible to achieve one more year of bumper crop this year. The Coffee Board seems to be a little ambitious for Robusta this year. Unless new areas come up for harvest this year, we cannot expect bumper crop in Robusta,” Sahadev Balakrishna, chairman, Karnataka Planters Association (KPA) said. While, the KPA agrees with the Coffee Board as far as 10 per cent growth trend in Arabica coffee production for the present crop year, it does not agree with the board as regards to Robusta coffee output for the year. It also does not agree with the board as regards to the harvested crop for last year.

The KPA also does not agree with the board for the harvested crop for 2010-11. According to KPA, the harvested Arabica crop was 85,000 tonnes and Robusta about 205,000 tonnes. According to Coffee Board, the final estimates for 2010-11 is pegged at 302,000 tonnes (95,000 tonnes of Arabica and 207,000 tonnes of Robusta).

The Coffee Board has estimated 105,000 tonnes Arabica crop for 2011-12, a growth of 10.5 per cent over the harvested crop in 2010-11. The board has pegged the Robusta crop for the present year at 217,000 tonnes, a growth of 4.8 per cent over the harvested crop last year. The total coffee production for the year 2011-12 is estimated at 322,000 tonnes, a growth of 6.62 per cent.

However, the KPA estimates the Arabica output to be around 95,000 tonnes for 2011-12, a growth of 11.7 per cent over the harvested crop for 2010-11. It estimates the Robusta production to be around the same level as seen last year or it may even drop by 10 per cent, Balakrishna said.

“The Coffee Board is a little over-ambitious in its estimates for the present crop year. Unless we see the new area converted for Robusta from Arabica coming to the market this year, we cannot expect bumper output for two consecutive years,” he said.

A large number of growers had converted their Arabica gardens into Robusta between 2000 and 2005 following white stem borer pest attack. However, there is no official estimates available as to the extent of new area under Robusta, he said adding that 5-10,000 tonnes or additional Robusta coffee could come to the market this year.

“There are several constraints to achieve bumper crop in Karnataka this year. The growers are facing difficulties like shortage of electricity ,” he added.