Exit polls give Modi an even bigger majority

Congress seen forming govt in 68-seat Himachal

The exit polls have spoken — all confirming the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would see another victory in Gujarat. And those are unanimous: The Bharatiya janata Party (BJP) will increase its share of seats in the 182-member state Assembly.

The polls also agree that it will be the Congress that will form government in the 68-seat Himachal Pradesh.

The unanimity might be rare but also predictable. All the TV channels that have conducted polls (some call it only surveys) predict that BJP would win in Gujarat and the Congress in Himachal. The squabbling, however, is on how many seats each would bag in the two states.

For Gujarat, the CVoter survey predicts 119-129 seats for BJP and 49-59 for the Congress. The Headlines Today-ORG ‘survey’ gives BJP 118-128 and the Congress 50-56 seats. India TV says BJP will get 124 and Congress 54. Interestingly, News24 gives BJP the highest number of seats — between 129 and 140 — and the Congress just 40 (plus/minus 11). The ABP News-AC Nielson poll gives the ruling party 126 seats, nine more than its current tally, while it predicts the Congress would get 50 seats.

Most channels agree the rebel BJP leader Keshubhai Patel’s Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP) would make its debut in the state Assembly but there is no agreement on how many seats it would get. Most channels predict between two and six. Most channels say GPP’s show would make a dent in BJP’s performance, rather than the Congress’. The reason could be a consolidation of the Leuva Patel vote. This is because Modi’s principal rival, Keshubhai Patel, the founder of GPP, is a Leuva Patel. Other rival castes like the Kshtriyas have moved from the Congress to BJP.

Interestingly, after the polling, the bookies in the state, another significant barometer, are offering Rs 40 for every Rs 100 bet if BJP gets 90 to 100 seats. Profits get higher, up to Rs 350 for every Rs 100 bet on BJP getting more than 120 seats. For the Congress, bookies are offering Rs 30 on every Rs 100 if it wins 50 seats.