PM's New India Pledge: Laudable but unrealistic in time frame, expectations

PM exhorts nation to quit poverty, filth, corruption, terrorism, casteism, communalism in 5 years

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday launched another ambitious campaign Sankalp Se Siddhi (New India Pledge campaign) on the 75th anniversary of the Quit India movement, exhorting the nation to wage a battle against filth, poverty, corruption, terrorism, casteism, and communalism.

“Let us pledge to free India from poverty, dirt, corruption, terrorism, casteism, communalism and create a New India of our dreams by 2022,” Modi said in a tweet on August 9.

Modi first spoke of the resolve in his last Mann Ki Baat programme on All India Radio last month.

While these are laudable goals, Business Standard looks at the practicality of achieving some of them in the five-year timeframe set by the Prime Minister.

Poverty

Former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi was the first person to make poverty the central plank of her election campaign with the famous slogan Garibi Hatao (eradicate poverty) in 1971.

Since then every politician in the country has used this rhetoric for vote bank politics. Modi is no exception.

But can Modi deliver what his predecessors couldn’t?

In 1973-74, 54.9 per cent of the population was below the poverty line, according to the Lakdawala method. By 2004-05, it had declined to 27.5 per cent.

According to the Tendulkar Committee report, 37.2 per cent of the population was below the poverty line in 2004-05. This fell to 21.9 per cent by 2011-12.

The Rangarajan Committee report had estimated poverty at 29.5 per cent in 2011-12, down from 38.2 per cent in 2009-10. According to this report, 363 million were below the poverty line in 2011-12.
 

Whichever poverty line one takes, the period between 2004-05 and 2011-12 saw the fastest decline in poverty.

This rapid decline in poverty occurred in the period when gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaged more than 8 per cent per annum. Faster growth, coupled with an increase in non-farm jobs and strong real wage growth, pulled millions out of poverty, say experts.

Now, as the National Sample Survey consumption expenditure data, which form the basis of poverty estimation, are not available for 2016-17, it’s difficult to say what happened between 2011-12 and 2016-17.

Some experts contend that the pace of poverty reduction may have slowed during this period.

“After 2011-12, GDP growth slowed, real wage growth has been sluggish, and non-farm job growth has slowed. So it’s difficult to see how poverty decline could have maintained the momentum from 2011-12 to 2016-17 that it had in the period from 2004-05 to 2011-12. Thus, the per annum reduction in the poor would be much lower than the 20 million (per annum) before,” says Santosh Mehrotra, professor, Jawaharlal Nehru University.

The question now is whether the pace of decline observed between 2004-05 and 2011-12 can be replicated over the next five years. Experts aren’t convinced.

“With growth continuing to be sluggish and an investment revival difficult in the short run, I don’t see how those still below the poverty line can be lifted (above the line) over the next five years,” says Mehrotra.

Lifting the millions still languishing below the poverty line over the next five years will prove to be a herculean task for the National Democratic Alliance government.

Filth

On average, India generated around 143,000 tonnes of municipal solid waste per day during FY15, show the data from the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB). Of this only 22 per cent was processed or treated, meaning 78 per cent is either being dumped in landfill sites or remains uncollected from the source.

The problem of waste generation is rising every year. The data from the CPCB show that waste generated across 46 cities grew from 48,683 tonnes per day in 2010-11 to 62,845 tonnes a day in 2015-16.

Experts say curbing the incremental rise in waste generation and ensuring its scientific treatment are a tall order.

“It is difficult but not an impossible task. Municipalities don’t have a vision or sense of urgency to tackle the menace of garbage in the country. The services provided by the municipalities and the urban local bodies are inadequate,” says Satish Sinha, associate director at non-government organisation Toxics Link.

“These bodies need to gear up in terms of equipment and knowledge. There should be more transparency in the system and officials should be made accountable,” he adds. 

Casteism & Communalism

The problem of casteism and communalism is deeply entrenched in society. The seriousness of the problem can be gauged from the fact that in 2014 and 2015, on average, at least two to three communal riots and four to six caste riots per day took place in the country.

The data from the National Crime Records Bureau suggest that during the first two years (2014 and 2015) of the Bharatiya Janata Party-led government, a little over 2,000 communal riots took place in the country. In 2014, 1,227 communal riots took place in the country, and the number reduced to 789 in 2015.

While communal riots declined, there was a steep rise in political riots, caste conflicts, and agrarian disturbances. The number of political riots rose from 1,853 in 2014 to 1,960 in 2015, and Kerala led in this at 1,031 in 2015. Caste conflicts also rose to 2,428 in 2015, up from 1,512 in 2014, while agrarian conflicts rose more than fourfold – from 628 in 2014 to 2,683 in 2015.

“It is the job of politicians to propound philosophies and slogans, but they themselves don’t believe in them. Candidates in elections are decided on the basis of their castes and religions. On most occasions politicians don’t let the police intervene in caste and communal clashes and wait till the situation escalates into a big riot. At the same time the police force is overburdened with work and is acutely understaffed,” says Vappala Balachandran, former Indian Police Service officer and security analyst.
 

Uttar Pradesh accounted for roughly 30 per cent of all caste conflicts in India, while Bihar accounted for more than 40 per cent of agrarian clashes in 2015.

Terrorism

Indian Intelligence and security agencies are battling terrorism on four fronts. They are engaged with Pakistan-sponsored terrorists in northern India, Left-Wing extremists (LWE) in central and eastern parts of the country, ultras in the north-east, and ideologues of Islamic State of Syria and Iraq (ISIS) in south India, mostly Kerala and Telangana. 

The incidents related to LWE have been on the decline for the past few years. For instance, 611 deaths were reported in 1,760 incidents of violence in 2011 whereas 278 people died during 1,048 Maoists-related incidents in 2016. 

Experts say this has been because of arrests of senior members of the politburo, the highest decision-making body of the Maoists, and an increased presence of security forces in the hinterland. But they warn that Maoists are still capable of launching a lethal strike despite having lost their senior commanders.

Similarly, incidents related to insurgencies in the north-east are on the decline since 2009. The data from the Ministry of Home Affairs show that 264 civilians died in the 1,297 incidents that took place in 2009. At the same time, security forces had gunned down 571 extremists and arrested 2,162.

By comparison in 2016, 48 civilians died in 484 incidents related to violence caused by ultras, while security forces killed 1,202 ultras and arrested another 87.

The biggest setback to India’s efforts at maintaining peace has been in Jammu and Kashmir. Violence had declined for a brief period during 2011 and 2015. But after the “surgical strike” by the Indian defence forces in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir in 2016, the number of violent incidents has gone up.
 

The data reveal that 82 security personnel died in 322 terror incidents in 2016. Around 150 terrorists were killed, while 15 civilians lost their lives.

“The Modi government has miserably failed on the Kashmir front. The people are completely alienated because of the wrong policies of the current government. Unlike the previous governments, they have failed to engage with all stakeholders in Jammu & Kashmir. This approach will not end violence in Kashmir,” said M M Ansari, who was part of the three-member interlocutor team set up by the United Progressive Alliance government to hold a dialogue with all stakeholders in Kashmir.

“The other reason is that people in Kashmir are feeling alienated because government welfare schemes are not reaching them,” Ansari says.