Second Covid-19 wave spreading faster but mortality rate lower this time

JP Morgan report also says India lags in vaccination as compared to others, needs to speed up

The ongoing second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic is surging faster than the first one but is proving to be less fatal because of better treatment protocols to deal with the disease.
 

An April 1 “Asia Pacific Emerging Markets Research” report by financial services group JP Morgan noted that the positivity rate, or cases found per 100 tests, has risen from 1.6 per cent in mid-February to around six per cent at the beginning of April. It had reached around nine per cent when the first wave peaked in September 2020. The seven-day rolling average daily new cases was around 93,000 at the peak of the first wave. The rise to such levels seems to be quicker in the second wave (see chart 1).

 

A silver lining is that fewer people are dying than before, said the note authored by analysts Toshi Jain and Priyadarshini Mukherjee. The case fatality rate has fallen to 1.3 per cent even as cases have risen. It was 1.4 per cent in mid-February. The cases are also concentrated in fewer states. Maharashtra alone accounted for the majority of cases. Maharashtra has also seen a 10 percentage point decline in people stepping out to retail and recreation spots, according to search engine Google’s mobility data.
 

Vaccination remains a key weapon, which wasn’t around during the first wave. India, however, lags many countries in vaccinating its population (see chart 2).

 

“Both supply constraints and vaccine hesitancy would have to be overcome to ramp up significantly,” said the report.