2014-15 grain output might be less than last year's

For the 2014-15 crop year, India's foodgrain production is expected to be seven-nine million tonnes (mt) less than the fourth advance estimate for 2013-14 (265 mt).

According to the government's first advanced estimate for the 2014-15 crop year, released in September 2014, foodgrain production during the kharif season was estimated at 120.27 mt, nine mt less than last year, primarily due to the deficient southwest monsoon. Last year, rains were 88 per cent of the long-period average. As a result, agriculture growth in 2014-15 (April-March) is estimated at 1.1 per cent, compared with 3.7 per cent in 2013-14. The second advance estimate, expected to be released soon, will capture the projected output during the rabi season.

Among rabi crops, wheat is the most important. It is unlikely wheat production will be hit significantly, as favourable weather could make up for a small drop in output.

Officials said production of all nine oilseeds during the kharif and rabi seasons was expected at 27 mt, against 32 mt last year.

The low monsoon last year has had an impact on rabi acreage. Data showed the area under such crops was 0.3-0.4 million hectares less than last year, primarily due to a drop in the area under pulses and oilseeds.