Better yields to boost cotton production in 2016-17: ICAC

Globally, average yield is set to improve by 5% to 735 kg a hectare, production is set to rise by 5% to 23 mn tonnes

While global area under cotton is expected to contract by one per cent to 31 million hectares in 2016-17, the area in India is expected to expand by one per cent to 12 million hectares in 2016-17, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has stated.

Globally, the average yield is projected to improve by five per cent to 735 kg per hectare, which would cause production to increase by five per cent to 23 million tonnes. In India, cotton production is expected to increase by eight per cent to 6.3 million tonnes and better monsoons may boost yield by six per cent to 521 kg per hectare, though pest pressure remains a concern.

According to ICAC, in 2015-16, world cotton production fell by 17 per cent to 21.7 million tonnes, the lowest volume since 2003-04.

"Low international cotton prices at planting time led to a nine per cent contraction in area to 31.1 million hectares and the world average yield decreased by nine per cent to 699 kg per hectare. However, while area is expected to contract by one per cent to 31 million hectares in 2016-17, the average yield is projected to improve by five per cent to 735 kg per hectare, which would cause production to increase by five per cent to 23 million tonnes," ICAC stated.

As against India, cotton area in China is projected to decline by 10 per cent to 3.1 million hectares due to high production costs and reduced government support, and production is forecast to decrease by 10 per cent to 4.7 million tonnes.

On the other hand, after contracting by 14 per cent to 3.3 million hectares in 2015-16 due to less attractive cotton prices and overly wet soil conditions preventing planting in some areas, cotton area in the United States is expected to expand by 5 per cent to 3.4 million hectares, and production could increase by 14 per cent to 3.2 million tonnes.

Meanwhile, highlighting global trends on mill use of cotton, the ICAC report stated that mill use was likely to grow by 11 per cent to 1.2 million tonnes in Vietnam and by 10 per cent to 1.2 million tonnes in Bangladesh, the two leading garment exporters.

However, despite declining demand for imports of cotton yarn by China in 2015-16, mill use in India is expected to recover by three per cent to 5.4 million tonnes and in Pakistan by one per cent to 2.2 million tonnes. Further, while mill use remains stagnant in 2016-17, world cotton trade volume may increase by one per cent to 7.4 million tonnes.