Climate change to pull down crop yield, fish output, labour capacity: IPCC

Rice, wheat, pulses, and coarse cereal yields could fall almost 9% by 2050; maize production could drop by almost 17% in southern parts of country

The latest IPCC report, while presenting a grim picture on the adverse impact of climate change across India in general, has been particularly alarmist when it comes to the impact on agriculture and farming.

The report said that due to adverse effects of climate change crop yields in India will decline, production of commercial fish species like ‘Hilsa’ and ‘Bombay Duck’ will go down and labour capacity in agriculture will drop.

On crop yields, the IPCC report said that rice, wheat, pulses, and coarse cereal yields could fall almost 9 per cent by 2050.

In southern parts of the country, maize production could drop by almost 17 per cent if emissions remain high.

The report also said production of major commercial fish species in India namely ‘hilsa’ and ‘bombay duck’ could decline dramatically in the years to come if temperatures continue to rise.

“These disruptions to crop production are expected to cause price spikes in India, threatening food affordability, food security and economic growth,” the United Nations Inter­gov­ernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said in the second part of its sixth as­sessment report released on Monday.

The report said that continued climate change will also impact the energy harnessed by marine plants and algae, which are crucial for strong fisheries.

The report also said that India’s labour capacity particularly in agriculture will go down due to rising heat on account of climate change.

“A study cited in the report shows that agricultural labour capacity in India will fall by 17 per cent if warming continues to 3°C - only a little more than current planned emissions would lead to - or 11 per cent if emission cuts are accelerated,” the report said.

It also added that the overall effect of continued high emissions could be to reduce average global incomes 23 per cent, with average incomes in India 92 per cent lower in 2100 than they would have been without climate change, according to the study cited by the IPCC.

The report also stated that climate change will hit international supply chains, markets, finance, and trade, reducing the availability of goods in India and increasing their price, as well as damaging markets for Indian exports.

The IPCC report also said that in addition to temperature and water availability stress, climate change will bring new water quality challenges in freshwater systems, including increased dissolved organic carbon and toxic metal loads.

This will have a direct bearing on freshwater and inland fishing in India.

“Freshwater ecosystems that support most inland fisheries are under continuing threat from changes in land use, water availability and pollution and other pressures that will be exacerbated by climate change,” the report said.

“The science is clear. Without a major turnaround in carbon emissions and the way we farm, we are likely to see mass crop failures and food system collapse - with people in poverty hit first and hardest by a crisis they did not cause. Transforming agriculture is now urgent - governments must act to support local communities’ efforts to feed themselves and encourage resilience through diversity, not uniformity,” Professor Olivier De Schutter, UN Special Rapporteur on Extreme Poverty and Human Rights and chair of the International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems (IPES-Food) said.

• Rice, wheat, pulses, coarse and cereal yields may fall by almost 9 per cent by 2050.

• Maize output may drop by 17 per cent in South India if emissions remain high

• If temperatures rise, the main commercial fish species, such as hilsa and Bombay duck, will fall.

• Agriculture labour capacity to fall by 17% if warming continues

• Freshwater and inland fishing to be hit due to increased dissolved organic carbon and metal loads