Exit polls perform marginally better

Exit poll surveys have a history of going wildly awry, but in the assembly elections just past, their strike rate was better than before. Bloomers by exit polls are not unknown. In the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, for instance, all exit polls gave the BJP-led national Democratic Alliance Lok Sabha between 230 and 270 seats. In fact, the BJP got 185 seats. In the same election, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance was expected to get anywhere between 176 and 197 seats. The alliance landed 217 seats.

The story was no different in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. The Congress-led alliance was predicted as getting anything between 195 and 218 seats. It got 263.The range for the BJP alliance was between 183 and 198 seats. It got 159.

In the elections that just concluded, the script is a little different. In Tamil Nadu, all exit polls erred on the side of caution. CNN-IBN’s exit poll gave the AIADMK alliance 120-132 seats and the DMK alliance 102-114 whereas Headlines Today’s exit poll kept the DMK alliance at 115-130 and AIADMK at 105-120. While the surveys were right in predicting an AIADMK victory they couldn’t predict the extent of the landslide.
 

PREDICTION AND REALITY
Actual seats won	Forecast
West Bengal	CNN-IBN	Star	HT	CVoter
TC 226	222-234	221	210-220	227-235
LF 62	60-72	60	65-70	48-56
Tamil Nadu
AIADMK+203	120-132	*	105-120	168-172
DMK+31	102-114	*	115-130	54-62
Assam
Congress 76	64-72	*	41-47	41-45
AGP 10	22-Jun	*	31-35	31-35
BJP 4	11-Jul	*	16-18	14-18
Kerala
UDF 72	63-71	*	85-92	83-91
LDF 68	69-77	*	45-52	49-57
*Not available

It was not hard to predict a victory for the TC in West Bengal. So, all the polls said Mamata Banerjee would form a government. But, here too, no one could predict an exact figure. TV channel CNN-IBN’s exit poll predicted 222-234 seats for the Trinamool Congress (TC) coalition in the 294-member West Bengal Assembly. The Star-Nielsen survey projected that TC may get 221 seats and Headlines Today pegged it at 210-220. The CVB News-Cvoter placed TC at 227-235 seats and the Left at 48-56. TC swept the polls winning 226 seats.

While the Congress won 76 seats in the 126-seat Assam Assembly, CNN-IBN’s exit poll had predicted the Tarun Gogoi-led Congress government would return to power with 64-72 seats. With a reasonably accurate strike rate, it would seem that exit polls might continue to be in business.