Exports fall for 12th straight month, down 24% in Nov

Imports decline 30% to $30 billion

India’s merchandise exports fell for the twelfth consecutive month in November this year. During the 2008-09 global financial meltdown, the decline was for nine months on the trot.

Last month, exports contracted 24 per cent — the steepest fall in recent years —to $20 billion, according to data released by the commerce ministry on Tuesday.  Compared to this, exports were $26 billion in November 2014, Exports had last recorded growth a year ago, rising 7.3 per cent year-on-year. The rate of drop in exports for November is the highest since then. Besides global slowdown, the fall is attributed to a decline in global commodity prices.

Imports, too, declined 30 per cent to $30 billion in November compared with the year-ago period, when it was $43 billion. During April-November 2015, India’s cumulative imports were $261 billion. This is a 17 per cent drop from $316 billion, the cumulative figure for the same period last year.

In line with overarching trends, gold imports, too, fell 36 per cent to $3.5 billion — down from $5.6 billion in November 2014. As a result, trade deficit has narrowed to $88 billion cumulatively for months leading up to November in the current financial year. The corresponding figure for the previous year was $102 billion.

The oil import bill dropped 45 per cent in October to $6.4 billion, following global cues of plunging crude oil prices. Compared to this, $11.7 billion was the comparative cost in November last year.

Non-oil imports, too, dropped 4.4 per cent to an estimated $23 billion. Gold was down 36 per cent at 3.5 billion dollars. Non-oil, non-gold imports, taken as a reflection of domestic demand and a broad gauge for industrial recovery, declined by 0.22 per cent in November.

This was much lower than a fall of 8.5 per cent in October. This implied that industrial recovery may be on the way from November onwards. However, these numbers should be interpreted with caution. October saw the index of industrial production rising by a five-year high of nine per cent, which could be a result of festival season boost.