Grain output seen at record high

2nd advance estimates project July 2013-June 2014 production at 263.2 mt

In what could pull down food inflation further through the next few months, foodgrain production for the July 2013-June 2014 period has officially been projected at an all-time high of 263.2 million tonnes, 2.3 per cent more than in the year-ago period.

Production of all major crops —wheat, rice, maize and pulses — are expected to touch record levels. Record harvests of wheat and rice could aggravate the problem of lack of space to store foodgrain.

According to the second advance estimates of foodgrain production released by the department of agriculture on Friday, wheat production is at 95.6 mt, 2.23 per cent more than in the year ago period. Rice production is expected at an all-time high of 106.19 mt (against 105.24 mt in the year-ago period).

“The bumper harvest is primarily due to the excellent southwest monsoon in 2013 and the good rains thereafter. Though this had a negative impact on vegetables, it was very good for cereals. Such numbers will give a big boost to overall agriculture growth in 2013-14, helping the government meet its targeted GDP (gross domestic product) growth of 4.9 per cent,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist, CARE Ratings.

Coarse cereals output is expected at 41.64 mt, against 40.04 mt a year earlier. Pulses production is projected at 19.77 mt (up eight per cent). In the pulses segment, gram and tur are expected to see the biggest surge in production.

The output of oilseeds is estimated at 32.98 mt (a rise of 6.59 per cent), with groundnut and mustard seed seeing the highest rise. Production of mustard seed, primarily a rabi crop, is estimated at 8.25 mt (up 0.23 mt). Among cash crops, production of cotton estimated at 35.60 million bales (1 bale=170 kg), almost 4.03   per cent more than in the year-ago period. Sugarcane production is estimated at 345.92 mt, against 341.2 mt in the year-ago period.

In 2013, the southwest monsoon, which accounts for about 70 per cent of the country’s total rains, was six per cent above-normal and among the best in last several years. Almost all parts of the country, barring Bihar, Assam and West Bengal, received heavy and well-distributed rainfall through the June-September period. The India Meteorological Department said overall, India received 936.7 mm of rainfall during the 2013 southeast monsoon, compared with a normal of 886.9 mm.

The good rains continued through the winter, boosting prospects of the rabi harvest, too. The latest government data showed as of Friday, rabi crops had been planted across 65.41 million hectares, six per cent more than a year earlier.