Indicus price monitor

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The 1st advance estimates for 2013-14 have set rice output to cross 92 million tonnes for the third consecutive year; yet prices continue to trend upwards, with a sharp and steady rise since May 2012. In July last year, the all-India average wholesale price crossed Rs 2,000 a quintal and this month moved above Rs 2,400 a quintal. Stocks with the government are high.

On September 1, stocks were more than double the buffer norms. This year's harvest, which will start coming in from next month, is set to add to these stocks. Meanwhile, even with huge stocks, domestic retail prices have been above Rs 26 a kg for the past three months, compared to the Rs 23 a kg levels at the same period last year.

Pressures continue on prices, as the minimum support price has moved from Rs 1,000 a quintal for common paddy in 2010-11 to Rs 1,350 a quintal in 2013-14. Exports are expected to rise by 10 per cent this year and the high demand has led to expectations of moderation in prices, rather than any significant decline.