Modi promises to ratify Paris Agreement on Oct 2

Modi's gambit to hinge ratification of climate change pact to NSG membership fails

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday announced the country would ratify the Paris Agreement on October 2, Mahatma Gandhi’s birth anniversary.

This marked an end to uncertainty and flip flops that had gripped India’s climate change diplomacy ever since the failure to attain the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) membership in June this year.

Modi announced his government’s decision in Kozhikode, Kerala, at the national conclave of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).  

The ratification requires a simple Cabinet approval at a time of the prime minister’s choosing and not a Parliamentary approval.

The announcement comes after the government’s attempt to link country’s ratification of Paris Agreement with the US putting its weight behind India’s bid to win a NSG membership came to naught.  

A successful linkage was hinged on two factors.

One, that the outgoing US President Barack Obama is keen to have the Paris Agreement come in to force before his term gets over as his legacy; and two, India’s ratification would be essential for it.
 

The linkage, drawn up at the highest level in the government in June, lacked credibility to start with. India’s emission reduction commitments under Paris Agreement do not require a substantial increase of nuclear power in the future energy mix.

After linking the ratification to producing more nuclear power, implying the need for NSG membership (and a more robust support from the US for it), the government changed its tone in September. On the side-lines of G20 talks, the government claimed ratification would not be possible this year because of procedural concerns.

Regardless of the reason proffered in public, the decision at the highest level to not ratify the Paris Agreement left the rest of government to mull the consequences within the climate diplomacy arena.

But within days, the government re-calibrated its line in public yet again, claiming it was making all the efforts to ratify but remained uncertain if it could do so in time for end-2016. The diluted line was to deflect from the obvious reading that India was playing a manoeuvre against the US in the hope of getting better support for its NSG membership.

It was the first sign of emerging understanding in the government that the gambit was failing. And, the gambit did fail when about 30 more countries ratified the Paris Agreement last week taking the total tally to 60.
 

This included almost all major emerging economies including China, Brazil, Argentina and others. EU remained the only key developed country group yet to join, but it, too, on Friday announced that it would collectively ratify the global climate compact before November.  This promised to leave India isolated and embarrassed about the brinkmanship around climate talks as US President Obama looked on track to get the legacy gift without India’s help.

The agreement requires 55 countries accounting for 55 per cent of the global greenhouse gas emissions to ratify in order for the pact to come into force. 60 countries adding up to 48 per cent emissions have already done so and both the necessary thresholds would have been crossed by countries by October leaving India behind — risking global opprobrium. The annual climate negotiations are to begin on November 7 and an informal meeting of environment ministers is planned for October — both in Morocco.