NCAER sees GDP growth at 6.2% on flat agriculture gross value added

The IMF projected the growth rate at 7% for FY20, while the World Bank saw it at 7.5%

Economic think tank NCAER (National Council of Applied Economic Research) expects the agriculture gross value added (GVA) to remain flat in 2019-20, pulling down the country’s economic growth rate to 6.2 per cent in FY20, from 6.8 per cent in FY19.  The NCAER’s projection for the economic growth rate is the lowest among the various estimates that have come so far. The IMF projected the growth rate at 7 per cent for FY20, while the World Bank saw it at 7.5 per cent. The country’s official projections also stand at 7 per cent. The NCAER projected industrial growth rate at 6.1 per cent, and services expansion at 6.9 per cent. It pegged the Centre’s fiscal deficit at 3.5 per cent of GDP for FY20, higher than Budget projection of 3.3 per cent.  It forecasts the country’s current account deficit at 0.6 per cent of GDP for FY20 against 2.1 per cent a year ago.  It said agricultural growth collapsed in the last two quarters of FY19. The prospects for FY20 for the sector, in particular, depend largely on the south-west monsoon. As of 5 August, 2019, of 36 agro-meteorological sub-divisions, three had received excess rainfall, 21 had received normal rainfall, while the remaining 12 sub-divisions had received deficient rainfall, it said.