Payroll numbers rise in June to pre-covid levels as old exits return

If only new payroll members are accounted for, there is still some way to go for getting back to pre-covid

Net additions to subscription to the Employees’ Provident Fund (EPF) in June have brought the payroll numbers to the level of the pre-covid period (see chart). 

However, this was largely due to those exiting the subscription in the previous months joining back in the month of June. 

If only the new payroll members are taken into account, there is still some way to go in getting back to the pre-covid period-–498,262 in June this year compared to 920,057 a month on average in 2019-20 and 1.2 million a month the preceding year (2018-19). 

The payroll data should not be confused with jobs but should be taken as formalisation of economic activities. 

However, there is surge in both new payroll members as well as net additions in June, compared to April and May of 2020. In fact, many lead indicators such as sharp deceleration in the decline rates of the index of industrial production, exports, purchasing managers’ indices (PMI), also showed nascent recovery in economic activities. 

It was in July that some indicators showed that the recovery won’t be coming as quickly. In that respect, July payroll data would be keenly watched. 

2018-19	13944349	12296941	4464815	6112223
Average a month in 2018-19	1162029	1024745	372068	509352
2019-20	11040683	10996914	7814625	7858394
Average a month in 2019-20 Covid period:

920057

916409 651219 654886 April, 2020

177462

408355 251057 20164 May, 2020

303388

445625 314411 172174 June, 2020 498262 296936 453985 655311