Rain 68% more than normal in week ended Sept 23

During the week ended Wednesday, rainfall was 68 per cent more than normal. This has led to hope of a good harvest during the coming rabi season. It might also help make good some of the expected production shortfall in the kharif season.

Data released by India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday showed during September 17-23, India received 57.4 mm of rain, against the normal average of 24.2 mm. It added the current revival in rain might extend up to the first week of October in some regions, which could delay the overall withdrawal of the southwest monsoon this year.

The southwest monsoon, the lifeline of millions of farmers across the country, hits the Kerala coast in June and starts withdrawing from the western parts of the country from September. Rain during the June-September period accounts for about 70 per cent of the precipitation India gets every year.

The IMD data showed during September 17-23, rain in north-western states such as Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan was 182 per cent more than normal, while in central India, it was 126 per cent more. In the east and northeast, rain was 34 per cent higher than normal.

“Though the rain has come almost at the end of the monsoon and it might save the standing kharif crop from withering, its main impact would be on the coming rabi harvest, as it would provide the moisture needed for good sowing,” said a senior official.

Encouraged by the late surge in rains, the agriculture ministry last week raised its rabi foodgrain production target for 2015-16 to 133 million tonnes (mt), 6.62 mt more than the production in 2014-15.

“Even if the IMD’s prediction of 12 per cent shortfall comes true, the rabi agriculture production in 2015-16 is unlikely to be worse than in 2014-15, unless there is any unforeseen weather change. If the rabi harvest is normal, farm growth in 2015-16 should be 2.5 per cent,” Ramesh Chand, agricultural economist and NITI Aayog member, told Business Standard.

As of Thursday, sowing has been completed across 102.62 million hectares, two million hectares more than in the corresponding period last year.