RBI survey lowers growth projection for next 10 years to 7.5%

A Reserve Bank-conducted survey today lowered India's growth rate projection to 7.5 per cent per annum for the next 10 years, down from 8.8 per cent estimated earlier.

“For the next 10 years, GDP is expected to grow at 7.5 per cent, revised downwards from 8.8 per cent in the last survey,” RBI said releasing the results of Professional Forecasters’ Survey.

The central bank has been conducting the survey on a quarterly basis on major macroeconomic indicators of medium — term economic developments since the quarter ended September 2007.

The survey, which cut the growth forecast for 2008-09 to 6.6 per cent from 6.8 per cent and the 2009-10 outlook to 5.7 per cent from 6.0 per cent, also gave median forecasts for quarters ahead.

The fourth quarter of the last fiscal 2008-09 is expected to have grown at 5.5 per cent, down from the earlier forecast of 6.2 per cent, the survey comprising views of 17 professional forecasters said.

However, RBI said the results of the survey represent views of the respondent forecasters and in no way reflect the central bank's views or forecasts.

The forecasters, on average, expect India to grow faster with each passing quarter, as they view growth of 5.3 per cent, 5.6 per cent, 6.2 per cent and 6.5 per cent for the four quarters of 2009-10, respectively. Further, the survey revised its forecast for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the next five years to 7.0 per cent, down from its earlier estimate of 7.7 per cent reported in the last survey.

Meanwhile, among other indicators, the survey expects minus 1.4 per cent WPI (Wholesale Price Index) inflation in the first quarter of 2009-10, and 5 per cent and 4.5 per cent over the next five and 10 years, respectively. Interestingly, the survey puts consumer price index number for industrial workers (CPI-IW) near to the wholesale price index (WPI), unlike in current times, for the two periods of five and 10 years.

The professional forecasters expect CPI-IW inflation to be at 5.9 per cent for the next five years and at 5 per cent on average over the next 10 years.