Recovery tracker: Power generation flat, mobility shows signs of moderation

Weekly indicators of economic activity are now showing some signs of improvement, with an uptick in new Covid-19 cases. Power generation was above the 2019 levels but remained flat on a week-on-week basis. It was at par with the generation figures at this time of the year in 2020.
 
The railway data was higher than the 2020 levels, but the gains moderated for the 3rd consecutive week. The mobility showed some signs of improvement. Traffic and emissions indicators also rose last week. Power generation was down marginally as many parts of the country received heavy rain, reducing demand for cooling and irrigation.
 
In all, 3,890 million units of electricity were generated on a seven-day rolling average basis for the week ending Sunday, 1st August, down 1 per cent from the previous week. The latest week’s numbers are 6.9 per cent higher than the corresponding week in 2019 and at par with the generation in the corresponding week in 2020.

There was a sharp dip in power demand during this week in 2019. The year 2019 is used; as it predates Covid-19 hitting India. There was an improvement in personal mobility as more people visited their workplaces but retail and recreation visits declined. Usage of public transport was unchanged.

Overall visits, however, remain below 2019 levels. Almost 82 per cent of workplace visits are back, while usage of transit stations is at 88 per cent of 2019 levels. This is based on mobility data from Google which tracks people’s movements based on anonymised location data. The data is released with a lag and is as of July 28.

Essential shopping including grocery and pharmacy visits are 19 per cent above normal while retail and recreation visits are still down 24.4 per cent.
 
Traffic congestion increased on a week-on-week basis. New Delhi traffic is now 83 per cent back to normal, while Mumbai traffic is 69 per cent of pre-Covid days. Both figures are up on a week-on-week basis. 
 

The railway freight traffic continues to show double-digit gains over the same week in 2020, but gains moderated last week. It could be attributed to a higher base effect. The Indian Railways carried 9.9% more goods (in terms of tonnage) on a YoY basis during the week ending Sunday, August 1, down from 12.4 per cent gains in a week before.

Business Standard also tracks nitrogen dioxide emissions which come from industries and vehicles. Delhi emissions last week were 26 per cent higher than 2019 levels based on a seven-day rolling average basis. The NOX emissions in Mumbai have, however, shot up sharply. Emission in Mumbai more than doubled to 110 per cent compared to 2019 levels. This indicated a greater level of traffic and industrial activity. Business Standard tracks these weekly indicators to get a sense of how the economy is recovering from the Covid-19 shock. Official macroeconomic numbers are often released with a lag.

Analysts globally have been tracking similar indicators as different countries went into lockdown to control the Covid-19 pandemic.