StatsGuru: Behind the worrying uptick in food inflation

For much of the recent past, high food inflation has driven all-round price increases. But, as Table 1 shows, food inflation trended downwards in the first months of Narendra Modi's prime ministership, whether measured in wholesale or retail terms. But, worryingly, it has gone up again more recently.



More understanding of these two contrary trends in the overall year-on-year food inflation figures comes from decomposing how various specific food groups have behaved. As is clear in Table 2, cereal inflation has steadily declined all through in year-on-year terms. This is a big component of retail food inflation index.

Table 3 shows that milk price inflation, too, has continued to decline year-on-year. But there appears to be a reversal in trend for meat and fish, as shown in Table 4.

And pulses, according to Table 5, are showing startling increases in price.



When Table 6 is examined, the nature of changes in prices becomes even clearer. Wheat, for example, has seen big price drops, especially recently. Meanwhile, the price of pulses has increased, though that increase seems to be spaced out across time. Cooking oils have increased in price in recent weeks. Potatoes have seen a giant fall. But most worryingly, perhaps, tomatoes - a good proxy for other perishable vegetables - which were falling steadily in price since Modi took office, have suddenly shot up in price in the past month. That is perhaps what underlies the turn in food inflation.