StatsGuru: Making sense of the global trade debate at Bali

At the recently concluded world trade talks in Bali, what was at stake? First, look at the current patterns of Indian and world trade. Table 1 shows the top four importers and India for various product and service categories. (If India is one of the top five, then top five are shown.) What is notable is the categories in which India is minuscule as an exporter - for example high-tech semiconductors and manufactures in general. Commercial services, too, see a tiny Indian presence, but it is second in IT services export. (Click here for table)

A majority of India's exports, as Table 2 shows, go to other Asian countries. Not all of this could be for final demand, suggesting that India perhaps is becoming integrated into regional supply chains - exactly what the "trade facilitation" agenda at Bali was supposed to further enable. Notably, as Table 3 shows, Indian exports are beginning to see a slight uptick overall, so trade reform comes at a crucial time.

Trade facilitation, the Bali agenda said, will not provide minor gains to trade. As Table 4 argues, it will in fact give a bigger boost to trade, and a comparable boost to GDP, as if all trade tariffs were to be removed globally. And, as Table 5 shows, in the case of a global deal, two-thirds of the benefits will accrue to the developing world. If a deal at Bali had not been achieved, the developed countries would have done it themselves - and that would have cost the developing world, as Table 5 also shows. Finally, Table 6 shows that among the biggest jump in exports from trade facilitation will accrue to South and Central Asia.