StatsGuru: Tracking the downward trend in India's export and import figures

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Recent falls in India's trade have concerned many. Exports, in particular, seem to have shrunk precipitously in recent months, as shown in Table 1. Much of this is believed to be due to fall in oil prices. As Table 2 shows, the value of petroleum exported has fallen sharply in percentage terms. But, as Tables 3 and 4 show, petroleum is still the largest constituent of India's exports, even though considerably less in value than it was four years ago.

However, even if driven by the fall in petroleum and other commodity prices, there is no denying the effect on India's balance of payments, in Table 5. It looks much more secure. This is all the more important in case foreign direct investment (FDI), which is strong, and foreign institutional investors (FII), where the sentiment is more doubtful, turn adverse. Both investment flows are shown in Table 6. However, there is one disturbing trend: In spite of weak prices and physical controls that have caused considerable volatility, gold is trending upwards as a constituent of Indian imports, as Table 7 warns. But are exports booming other than price-affected gold and petroleum? As Table 8 warns, exports excluding those sectors are also shrinking of late.