UPA confident of numbers

But this calculation is heavily dependent on the ability of the Samajwadi Party (SP) to safeguard most of its MPs from BSP boss Mayawati's poaching efforts. Mayawati arrived in Delhi this morning and held meetings with the Left and other political leaders.

Sources indicate that the UPA has managed to get on board what was possible from small parties, independents and dissidents. Now their only fear is that the entire calculation may go wrong if the SP faces a "high level of attrition" in its team of 39 MPs.

A top Congress minister told Business Standard, "We have done our bit. Now everything depends on the Samajwadi Party. Amar Singh had promised Sonia Gandhi that 35 SP members will vote for the government. We apprehend that two-three more from the SP might defect at the last moment. We can withstand that loss. But if the SP MPs leave in large numbers, then we are in trouble."

The Congress is also confident that Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) with three MPs, Shibu Soren-led Jharkhand Mukti Morcha's five MPs and at least two MPs from H D Deve Gowda's JD(S) will vote for the ruling coalition. Railway Minister Lalu Prasad was engaged to strike the deal with Soren.

The Jharkhand leader wanted to be reinstated in the Union cabinet before the trust vote. However, the Congress refused to take back Soren in the ministry before winning the trust vote.

The key crisis managers