Macquarie sees BJP, allies winning 230 seats in elections

Macquarie says markets are pricing in the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party winning 230 seats in the ongoing elections, calling that its "base case" as well.

Macquarie estimates a number around that range could spark gains of 5-10% over one month in Indian shares, while a number above 240 seats would spark 15-20% gains.

By contrast, should BJP and allies clinch less than 200 seats, Macquarie says markets could fall 15-20% over the next month.

BJP and its allies would need 273 seats to clinch a majority, although analysts say a number near it would comfort markets and raise the prospect of a more stable coalition.