Wait for rate cut may end with today's RBI policy review

Since the last cut 9 months ago, RBI has resisted pleas from businesses & politicians for further reductions, putting the onus govt to act

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is widely expected to make a modest cut in interest rates on Tuesday to support an economy set for its slowest growth in a decade, with a deeper cut unlikely due to worries over the fiscal and external deficits and inflation.

A Reuters poll earlier this month showed most economists foresaw the RBI cutting its policy repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.75% in the policy review, and follow it up with a cumulative 75 bps of cuts by the end of September.

Since the last cut nine months ago, the RBI has resisted pleas from businesses and politicians for further reductions, putting the onus back on the government to take action.

But the central bank had held out hope of a cut sometime this quarter after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's fractious coalition in September ended a debilitating phase of policy inaction to make urgently needed reforms to reduce the fiscal deficit and attract foreign investment.

The measures, which included giving foreign players more access to its retail and aviation sectors, helped India forestall the threat of a sovereign debt credit rating downgrade to junk status.

Recently, as part of an ongoing drive to trim spending, the government gave oil companies more room to set regulated diesel prices.

In December, inflation slowed to a three-year low of 7.18%, further building expectations for a cut in rates.

Hopes of a large rate cut, however, were quashed after RBI Governor Duvvuri Subbarao said two weeks ago that inflation was still high. His comment pushed the benchmark 10-year bond yield up to 7.89% from a 29-month low of 7.79% touched after the soft December inflation number.

In a report on the economy, issued a day before its policy review, the RBI spoke of taking a measured approach to support growth while balancing the risks.

"Monetary policy needs to continue to be calibrated in addressing growth risks as inflation remains above the Reserve Bank's comfort level and macro economic risks from twin deficits persists," the report warned.

It said recent government reforms had staved off near term risks on the fiscal front, but sustained fiscal consolidation was needed to create room for monetary easing.

"Reforms in September 2012 have reduced immediate risks, but there is a long road ahead to bring about a sustainable turnaround for the Indian economy," the report said.

It also warned that widening current account deficit would also constrain chances to ease policy, even if inflation were to slow further.

The current account gap touched a record high of 5.4% in July-September and is likely to rise further in the December quarter, the RBI said.

While measures taken by the government to bring the fiscal deficit within a targeted 5.3% of GDP have reduced near term risks, cuts in politically sensitive subsidies were needed for sustainable fiscal consolidation, the RBI added in its quarterly economic report.

The RBI also said its survey of professional forecasters had lowered the growth forecast for FY2013 ending March to 5.5% from 5.7%.

GDP growth that once looked set to hit double-digits has been stuck below 6% for the past few quarters.

The report went on to say that while inflation was likely to moderate in the current quarter ending in March, there were still significant risks posed to prices by suppressed inflation.

Looking ahead, the RBI will be calculating how much leeway it has left to ease once it sees the government's annual budget, due to be presented in late February by Finance Minister P Chidambaram.

"The next step in monetary policy will be taken on the back of measures taken to back up the fiscal consolidation roadmap. A lot will ride on the budget," said Shubhada Rao, chief economist at Yes Bank in Mumbai.