Asia resilient, has room for stimulus: IMF

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Reuters Washington
Last Updated : Feb 02 2013 | 11:04 AM IST

'Asian economies remain "generally resilient" in the face of global financial turmoil and a growing debt crisis in the euro zone, the IMF's top official for Asia and the Pacific said on Monday.

The IMF was concerned with possible spillover effects from the euro zone but Asian economies have room to take defensive fiscal measures if necessary, IMF Director for Asia and the Pacific region, Anoop Singh, told a news conference.

"In the event of a further slowdown in the global economy, our sense is that most economies in Asia have room for a strong policy response," Singh said, in an updated outlook for Asia.

"Certainly, if these severe downside risks materialize, another round of fiscal stimulus could be taken," he added, including through measures to bolster social programs for the poorest, increasing consumption and investments.

Last week, the IMF cut its outlook for the world economy to 3.3% in 2012, down from a prior estimate of 4%. It projected growth of 3.9% in 2013.

For Asia and the Pacific region, the IMF forecast growth in 2012 would come close to 6%, recovering to 6.5% next year - the fastest growing region in the world.

Singh said strong domestic demand was allowing Asian economies to "hold firm" in the face of turmoil in Europe.

He said investment and consumption have remained resilient in China, the world's fastest-growing economy, supported by strong corporate profits and rising household income.

The IMF has forecast that China's economy will expand in a range between 8% to 8.5% this year, increasing to 9% by 2013. In India growth will remain around 7% this year, edging above that number next year.

Singh said Asian banks have so far used their healthy finances to step in and ensure a flow of credit and trade finance, in the face of gradual deleveraging by European banks.

Inflation pressures in the region have also waned, he added.

"It is not surprising, therefore, that the pace of macro-policy tightening has generally paused, in some cases it has been reversed," Singh said, adding that inflation was projected to recede further during 2012.

Singh downplayed the possibility of a hard economic landing in China, saying Beijing was taking steps to reduce property bubble risks.

"China can move away from its reliance on external demand and needs to build up domestic demand," said Singh, adding that China was working on measures to stimulate demand.

"We don't see (a) hard landing risk as likely," Singh added, noting property prices were moderating and sales volumes declining.

Singh turned aside questions about whether China's yuan currency was undervalued and creating economic imbalances, saying that the IMF will be looking at the whole array of Asian currency policies, including those of Beijing, in coming months.

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First Published: Jan 31 2012 | 12:00 AM IST

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