Boeing says building mid-range jet a matter of 'when'

Boeing gave its strongest hint yet that it will soon develop its first all-new passenger aircraft since the 787 Dreamliner.

The US planemaker is honing designs for a mid-range plane to whisk travellers from New York to London, Sydney to Shanghai or Dubai to Oslo. Billions of dollars of investment would be required, but the aircraft would fill the gap in its product line between the largest single-aisle 737 and smallest widebody 787 - a relatively untapped market where Airbus Group SE is starting to extend its reach.

Boeing estimates that sales of middle-of-market jets could reach between 4,000 and 5,000 and the company would be poised to capitalise, provided it can keep production costs in check and prices reasonable, said Mike Delaney, general manager of airplane development. He used the term "when," not "if," while discussing the prospects for the new aircraft family, which would begin commercial flights next decade.

Recent discussions with 36 airline customers have given Delaney confidence that Boeing is on the verge of a breakthrough after years spent seeking a replacement for its out-of-production 757. Mike Sinnett, who heads product development for the company's commercial planes, has delved into the prices airlines would be willing to pay, and performance they'd expect, for jets that seat between 200 and 270 people with the range to fly about 5,000 nautical miles.

"It is not easy, it is not impossible. We are not there yet," Delaney told reporters in a briefing last month ahead of the Farnborough International Airshow. "But in the last six months, Mike's team has closed the gap pretty good."

Boeing's board must still green-light the effort, and the business case is challenging. Analysts have pegged demand more conservatively, at around 1,500 planes, said aerospace consultant Kevin Michaels. Developing a clean-sheet design would cost at least $10 billion, and that's assuming Boeing avoids the stumbles that delayed the Dreamliner's 2011 debut by more than three years. "The economics are going to be everything because of the entry costs," said Michaels, MD of Aerodynamic Advisory in Ann Arbor, Michigan. "I think the likely scenario is maybe they get board approval to begin selling it later this year."

Delaney wouldn't give a timeline. "We're working with our board and with our airline customers," he said. "It's coming faster than you think."

Airbus has gained sales by pitching its A320neo as the 757's heir. The European planemaker's largest narrow-body has notched 1,125 orders to 222 for Boeing's rival 737 Max 9, according to data compiled by George Ferguson, senior analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence. But the largest Airbus model can't be stretched to reach the sweet spot of the market that Boeing envisions, Delaney said.