Goose-stepping into isolation

China on Thursday held a vast military parade to celebrate victory over Japan 70 years ago. Twelve thousand soldiers were on the march through Beijing, accompanied by ballistic missiles, helicopter gunships, bombers and fighter jets.

This awesome display of power was lapped up by a patriotic nation that revels in shows of national strength. Yet, aside from Vladimir Putin, no prominent global leaders accepted China's invitation to attend. Unlike the US, China has few allies and even fewer genuine friends. And far from winning new friends, Thursday's military chest-thumping is only likely to scare China's neighbours into the arms of the US.

China's parade is designed to make it look strong, but it truly reflects a chronic lack of self-confidence. Chinese leaders remain insecure about China's global standing, never forgetting the "century of humiliation" at the hands of invading foreigners and China's former status as the "sick man of Asia". Propaganda systematically picks at this historical wound, with the aim of shoring up the Party's legitimacy as the sole guarantor of national strength. The point is to consolidate national identity around the Party's role in building a "rich country and strong army"-an old rallying cry of national rejuvenation taken up by President Xi Jinping.

Chinese diplomacy has gained in self-confidence over the past three years, especially with the triumphant establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank . Yet, for all of China's material progress under nearly 70 years of Communist Party leadership, the old insecurity remains: China still craves international respect.

Beijing invited leaders from all the world's major countries to attend its V-Day celebration, and has grandly announced that 30 heads of state will attend. Yet, other than Putin, they are mostly small fry. Much has been made of the presence of South Korean president Park Geun-hye, but no other major Asian nation will send a top leader. Instead China will welcome a motley crew of leaders from some of the world's weakest economies.

The paltry showing from Asia is unsurprising. Officially, the parade commemorates the "70th Anniversary of the Victory of the Chinese People's Resistance against Japanese Aggression and of the World AntiFascist War." Outside Japan, no one disputes that country's responsibility for the slaughter of millions of soldiers and civilians during World War II, especially in China. President Park's presence at the parade is almost certainly no coincidence, given Japan's wartime atrocities in South Korea. But across Southeast Asia, Japan remains an important investor and trade partner, and there is nothing to be gained in riling a valuable partner. China's assertive behavior in the South China Sea is a much bigger threat than Japan. This means that China must look elsewhere for international support and respect.

One of the most intriguing diplomatic shifts over the past three years is China's rapprochement with Russia. Since Gazprom signed a $400-billion gas deal with CNPC last May, Russia's "pivot to China" has gathered pace. In May, after Xi attended Russia's own Victory Day celebration in Moscow, both sides agreed to link their respective attempts to build economic empires across Eurasia. China's Silk Road Economic Belt and Russia's Eurasian Economic Union were once viewed as competitors, but Moscow and Beijing are now talking about a free trade agreement to build a "common economic space" stretching from China to Belarus. They have also begun to collaborate more closely on security issues, holding joint naval exercises in the Pacific. Of course, Russia's economy is not much to write home about these days, and Moscow had little choice but to turn to China following the fallout in Ukraine. China is very much the senior partner, even if it is careful to give the appearance of treating Russia as an equal. Nor is there any genuine trust on either side, given their long history of conflict. So it is questionable how resilient this "axis of authoritarianism" will prove.

Tom Miller is chief correspondent for emerging markets at Gavekal Research