Indian Oil Corporation Q4 results today; here's what analysts expect

Status of Ennore LNG terminal project and clarity on LNG tie up with suppliers and customers will be closely tracked by investors Progress of polypropylene project at Paradeep will also be key

Weaker benchmark GRM (gross refining margin) and lower marketing margins are likely to take a toll on Indian Oil Corporation's (IOCL) March quarter results, which is scheduled to be released today. Edelweiss Securities estimates the company's loss at Rs 1,609.4 crore for the quarter under review. 

Marketing margins, according to analysts at ICICI Securities, are expected to show a quantum increase as the company did not fully pass on lower costs to customers and also due to inventory gains.

ICICI Securities expects revenue to decline 14.7 per cent on quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) basis to Rs 1,36,598.2 crore due to lower average crude oil prices. On year-on-year (YOY) basis, the numbers are expected to remain unchanged. The brokerage projects net profit or PAT (profit after tax) to come in at Rs 4,185.3 crore, down 19.8 per cent YoY.

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) is expected to decline 24.6 per cent YoY Rs 8,315 crore. 

Crude throughput is seen at 17.8 MMT, a decline of 6.2 per cent QoQ mainly due to lower throughput in Paradip refinery. Crude throughput is the total amount of crude that goes into a refinery before it comes out processed. 

Core GRMs may remain weak due to a decline in diesel and petrol product spreads. However, reported GRMs are expected to increase QoQ to $6.9/bbl vs. $1.2/bbl in Q3FY19 due to inventory gains, as closing oil prices were up on a QoQ basis, analysts at ICICI Securities said in a preview note. HDFC Securities sees core GRM to come in at $2.4/bbl while crude inventory gain is seen at $3.8/bbl.

Status of Ennore LNG terminal project and clarity on LNG tie up with suppliers and customers will be closely tracked by investors. That apart, progress of PP (polypropylene) project at Paradeep refinery and guidance on future capex are the other key monitorables.