Natural rubber output to rise 6.6%

The revised estimates provided by the Association of Natural Rubber Producing countries (ANRPC) indicate that the overall supply of natural rubber (NR) in 2010 would be high. All rubber producing countries have reported an increase in production, except Thailand.

According to estimates, yearly production would be higher by 6.6 per cent this year. But the production in the main season (October-December) would be low indicating a tight supply condition all over the world for now, especially when oil prices are also moving northward.

Production is likley to fall 3.8 per cent in the fourth quarter of the current year. The latest assessment of the supply also indicates 4.2 per cent growth in production during 2011. The total production in this year is estimated at 9.5 million tonnes (mt) as against 8.92 mt in 2009, registering an increase of 6.6 per cent. Till October, nine leading NR producing nations had produced 7.75 mt of rubber as against 7.08 mt last year, registering a growth of 9.4 per cent.

The first quarter of the current year had seen a quantum jump in production with 18 per cent increase in the global output. However, this has declined to 3.2 per cent during the summer (April-June) and again increased to 12.6 per cent in the third quarter.

During October-December, negative growth is expected due to uncommon rainfall, flood and damage to rubber trees in most of the producing countries including Thailand. In Thailand, production was up 6.4 per cent during January-October, but is expected to fall 29.7 per cent in November and December, leading to an overall decline of 1.4 per cent in the calender year.