Pre-Diwali gold imports at lowest in a decade; dim Samvat for traders

Some, however, see the fall in prices as a good buying opportunity

While buyers and traders might be cheering the fall in gold prices in the last few days, the supply doesn’t look cheerful enough. This was evident from the import figures of the pre-Diwali month of October in the past few years. Import in October in the previous three years was 100 tonnes or more. This October, imports were a tenth of that.

Since the last and perhaps longest bull run in gold in many centuries that started in 2001, this is the first Samvat year in the Indian market in which returns have been negative. If anyone bought gold last Samvat, he has incurred a loss. There is no rush to buy gold during these auspicious days.

A trader said, “I have tracked gold, but I don’t remember in any pre-Diwali month when imports have fallen to a low of 12-odd tonnes.” So is the case with the September quarter import data from the World Gold Council (WGC).

Prices have fallen 4.7 per cent in five days to Rs 30,510 per 10g.

Rajiv Popley, director, Popley & Sons, said, “With prices moderating, I think investors should allocate a good amount of money to gold. We will look at a 15 per cent growth this Samvat.”

In the last Samvat, import duty was four per cent. It is 10 per cent now. This Samvat 2069, investors lost four per cent in gold.

Jayant Manglik, president, retail distribution, Religare Broking, said, “a weak dollar and delayed tapering of bond buying point to firming of prices in the near future. Buy on the dips, with an immediate target of Rs 33000 and a medium-term target of Rs 37,000.”

Domestic
Samvat	Date	Gold	% Change	Silver	% Change
		Rs/10 Gms		Rs/Kg
2057	Nov 14,2001	4625	2.10	7235	-9.22
2058	Nov 04,2002	5240	13.30	7875	8.85
2059	Oct 25,2003	5750	9.73	8390	6.54
2060	Nov 12,2004	6470	12.52	12005	43.09
2061	Nov 01,2005	6895	6.57	11795	-1.75
2062	Oct 21,2006	8770	27.19	18540	57.19
2063	Nov 09,2007	10605	20.92	20050	8.14
2064	Oct 28,2008	11855	11.79	17275	-13.84
2065	Oct 17,2009	15800	33.28	27475	59.04
2066	Nov 05,2010	19920	26.08	39200	42.68
2067	Oct 26,2011	26720	34.14	53990	37.73
2068	Nov 13,2012	31775	18.92	62085	14.99
*2069	Nov 03,2013	31100	-2.12	50530	-18.61
International
Samvat	Date	LME Gold	% Change	LME Silver	% Change
		$/Oz		$/Oz
2057	Nov 14,2001	278.30	4.96	4.17	-11.84
2058	Nov 04,2002	318.55	14.46	4.52	8.27
2059	Oct 25,2003	388.55	21.97	5.15	14.06
2060	Nov 12,2004	437.85	12.69	7.59	47.38
2061	Nov 01,2005	459.15	4.86	7.45	-1.91
2062	Oct 21,2006	591.50	28.83	11.90	59.77
2063	Nov 09,2007	832.00	40.66	15.47	30.01
2064	Oct 28,2008	746.95	-10.22	9.22	-40.41
2065	Oct 17,2009	1053.60	41.05	17.47	89.61
2066	Nov 05,2010	1393.65	32.28	26.74	53.05
2067	Oct 26,2011	1724.82	23.76	33.41	24.93
2068	Nov 13,2012	1725.00	0.01	32.49	-2.74
**2069	Nov 03,2013	1334.71	-22.63	22.33	-31.28
*as on 30-Oct-2013
**as on 31-Oct-2013(IST 14.30)