Pre-monsoon showers to boost kharif acreage

Acreage under kharif crops is expected to rise by 10-15 per cent

Boosted by a favourable climate, with well spread pre-monsoon showers, acreage under the kharif crop is likely to rise by 10-15 per cent this year.

The India Meteorological Department had earlier forecast a near-normal monsoon, well supported by even distribution of pre-monsoon showers in almost all states, which enthused farmers on sowing. Paddy, soybean, guarseed, sugarcane and cotton are the main crops grown during the monsoon season.

"Pre-monsoon showers allow farmers to prepare the fields for cultivation and then wait for the monsoons to undertake sowing. It is when these showers are not followed by adequate rain that the problem begins," said Tanushree Mazumdar, vice-president, National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX).

Last year, the area under kharif crops was reported at 101.76 million ha by the first week of October, 6.5 m ha higher than the previous year. It was also a million ha more than in 2008, which was a record production year.

The Second Advance Estimate for 2010-11 from the Union ministry of agriculture shows kharif foodgrain production at 117.2 million tonnes, a million tonnes lower than the record year of 2008-09. Kharif rice output at 80.2 mt will be 4.75 mt more than that achieved in 2008-09, while the current estimate for rabi output is slightly lower.

Preliminary reports suggest a higher acreage area under the kharif crop so far this year. The data shows a nearly 10 per cent increase in sugarcane area at 4.9 million ha till Friday, as compared to 4.56 m ha around the same time last year. It showed cotton sown in 722,000 ha, up almost 11 per cent from last year. Jute was sown in 774,000 ha, up from 625,000 ha during the same period last year. A higher area was also reported in soybean and pulses.

"The climate is behaving irrationally. Hence, it is too early to predict the change in acreage area with pre-monsoon rainfall," said D K Joshi, chief economist (agri commodities), of rating agency Crisil.

Even if the monsoon remains normal in June, much would depend upon the overall rainfall in July, which is the plant's germination stage, he added.

This also underlines the need for more irrigation, says Mmazumdar of NCDEX. The net irrigated area is around 40 per cent of the land, which is inadequate, as important kharif crops like cotton, pulses like tur, urad and moong and oilseeds like groundnut and soybean and even some vegetables and fruits depend on good monsoons. "Having said that, I think it is better to wait for the Met department for further guidance. Its first long-range forecast and the onset date for monsoons in Kerala suggests that we are likely to have normal monsoons this year," she added.