Tata Motors Q2 preview: Up to Rs 3,212 crore loss seen amid JLR's struggles

Tata Motors is scheduled to release its September quarter results on Tuesday and most analysts expect it to report muted numbers in year-on-year (YoY) terms, largely due to fall in JLR volume. On the other hand, sequential improvement is expected to be 'substantial' while standalone margins may turn positive.

According to the company's monthly sales data, Tata Motors sold 1.1 lakh units in Q2FY21, up 5 per cent as compared to 1.05 lakh units sold in the corresponding quarter last year. Sequentially, volumes grew 341 per cent for Tata Motors from 25,047 reported in Q1FY21.

At the bourses, shares of Tata Motors surged 32.3 per cent during the September quarter as compared to 9 per cent gain in the S&P BSE Sensex, ACE Equity data show.

Here's a look at what the leading brokerages expect from Tata Motors September quarter numbers.

ICICI Securities

Analysts at ICICI Securities see a muted quarter for Tata Motors despite a 'substantial' sequential improvement. The company's standalone sales volume (MHCV + PV) rose 5 per cent YoY to 1.1 lakh units while JLR volumes are expected at around 1 lakh units, down 25 per cent YoY. Consequently, the brokerage pegs Tata Motors' consolidated Q2FY21 net sales at Rs 56,078 crore, down 14.3 per cent YoY from Rs 65,432 crore in Q2FY20. Consolidated loss after tax is expected at Rs 2,892 crore against base quarter's loss of Rs 188 crore. On the operational front, Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and ammortisation (Ebitda) for the quarter under review is expected at Rs 4,726 crore with corresponding Ebitda margins at 8.4 per cent (up 300 bps QoQ, but down 420 bps YoY).

Prabhudas Lilladher

According to the brokerage, Tata Motors' standalone margins are likely to turn positive at 6.1 per cent as compared to -1.7 per cent in Q2FY20 and -26 per cent in Q1FY21, on account of increase in gross margin and lower other expenses. For JLR though, margins are expected to decline 490 bps YoY at 8.9 per cent with volumes declining by around 32 per cent YoY during the quarter..

Overall, the brokerage expects Tata Motors' revenue to dip 22.3 per cent YoY to Rs 50,827.5 crore. Although, sequentially, it is an increase of 58.9 per cent. Moreover, Tata Motors is seen reporting a loss of Rs 2,090.7 crore for the quarter.

Emkay

Emkay is building a 22 per cent YoY fall in Tata Motors' Q2FY21 revenue at Rs 51,098.9 crore, owing to a fall in JLR sales. On a standalone basis, the company is expected to report 1 per cent YoY increase in revenues. Meanwhile, the automaker is seen reporting a loss of Rs 3,212 crore in Q2FY21.  

Ebitda for the quarter under review is seen at Rs 3,035.1 crore, down 58 per cent YoY from Rs 7,160.5 crore in Q2FY20 while Ebitda margin may shrink 500 basis points YoY due to lower scale.

Meanwhile, "JLR’s GBP revenues are expected to decline by 35 per cent due to drop in volumes. JLR Ebitda margin is expected to contract to 6.8 per cent, owing to adverse currency impact and lower scale," it said.

HDFC Securities

Analysts at HDFC Securities, meanwhile, see Tata Motors reporting revenue of Rs 10,870 crore, up 9 per cent YoY on the back of 5 per cent increase in volumes. Meanwhile, Q2FY21 loss is seen at Rs 1,120 crore while standalone Ebitda margin is pegged at 1.5 per cent.

"India business outlook – market share gains in the PV segment, recovery trends in the CV segment, as well as JLR's recovery trends in China and rest of the world remain the key monitorables," the brokerage said.