Mathematical model predicts blood glucose levels 30 minutes in advance

Scientists have developed a mathematical model that can predict, with more than 90 percent accuracy, the blood glucose levels of individuals with type 1 diabetes up to 30 minutes in advance of imminent changes in their levels.

Peter Molenaar, Distinguished Professor of Human Development and Family Studies and of psychology, said that many people with type 1 diabetes use continuous glucose monitors, which examine the fluid underneath the skin.

He said that the glucose levels under the skin trail blood glucose levels from anywhere between 8 and 15 minutes, asserting that this is especially problematic during sleep. Patients may become hypoglycemic well before the glucose monitor alarm tells them they are hypoglycemic, and that could lead to death.

According to Molenaar, a person's blood glucose levels fluctuate in response to his or her insulin dose, meal intake, physical activity and emotional state. How great these fluctuations are depends on the individual.

The researchers created a time-varying model estimated by the extended Kalman filtering technique. This model accounts for time-varying changes in glucose kinetics due to insulin and meal intake.

The team tested the accuracy of its model using an FDA-approved UVa/Padova simulator with 30 virtual patients and five living patients with type 1 diabetes.

The results have been published in the Journal of Diabetes Science and Technology.