Skymet downgrades monsoon forecast to 100 percent

According to various weather agencies including Skymet, the Monsoon for 2016 has been predicted above normal.

As per the agencies, the monsoon rains in July performed better, as the actual rains in the month settled at 107 percent of LPA, which was almost perfectly in sync with the Skymet Weather's forecast of 108 percent.

Rains picked up pace further as we entered into August. Thereafter, the rains reduced considerably along the West Coast and Peninsular India, leading to gradual decrease in rain surplus.

According to Skymet Weather, the initial surge in the monsoon rains can be attributed to the transition of El Nino into the neutral phase. However, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has not influenced the Monsoon 2016 so far, as it has been negative since the beginning of the season.

Now, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), which was earlier travelling in the favourable zone, is no longer supportive for Monsoon rains.

Monsoon will remain normal this year with about 100 percent rains of LPA of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September.