Industrial Production likely to decline amidst Mixed Sentiments: ZyFin Research

While infrastructural bottlenecks and bureaucratic delays pose risk; fiscal prudence & consumer spending signal revival

ZyFin Research, a leading financial research and analytics company, today announced its Business Cycle Indicator (BCI) for the month of July 2015. The index, which is a lead indicator to the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) trend, has registered a score of 8.4 in July as against 9.5 in June. This is the third consecutive month when there was a decline in the BCI, raising fears of a renewed slowdown. However it is encouraging to note that compared to the previous year, the BCI is still signaling a strong recovery. The BCI was at 6.6 in July 2014. So while the domestic business cycle has come a long way after it bottomed out last year, the travel to its next peak has been a bumpy ride. The current BCI trend indicates towards a weakening in IIP levels in for May 2015. The recent declining trend reinforces the belief that the Indian Government needs to enhance its multitasking abilities to better focus on short term growth projections while continuing to fix long term growth instruments like infrastructure, foreign relations and bureaucracy. Nevertheless lower borrowing costs in the midst of easing inflationary pressures have done much to boost consumer sentiments. Also, significantly higher forex reserves play guard against adverse global geo-political tensions.

The ZyFin Business Cycle Indicator is a forward looking composite indicator of the Indian business cycle with a one month lead on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP). Under current situation, when world growth remains uncertain, lead indicators like the BCI can provide timely signals regarding the future course of local economies. The journey from the bottom of a business cycle to its peak has two parts, recovery and growth. In case of the BCI, a score between 5 till 12 is a reflection of a recovering cycle while growth cycle can be identified once the score breaches 12. Data analysts usually take a three month moving average of the BCI scores to comment on evolving trends.

The Index dipped further in July, compared to last month, primarily due to continued weak exports especially that of agricultural commodities. Also, a decline in production of non-ferrous metals compared to previous data point contributed to downtrend. However, when compared to the situation one year ago, there has been substantial recovery across various economic parameters including the government's revenue receipts, FDI as well as consumer spending on phones, cars as well as vacations. Government's fiscal prudence coupled with improving consumer sentiment are two vital drivers of India's growth prospects under current situations.

Giving his views on the July'15 number, Debopam Chaudhuri, Chief Economist, ZyFin Research, said, At a time when developed and industrial countries remain stuck in a low growth era, hopes are pegged on emerging nations to serve as growth engines of the world. This makes the India growth story a crucial factor in restoring world economy. It is necessary to restore growth in major emerging markets especially India to ward off risk factors endangering world growth today. These risk elements including a possibility of a currency war, carry a significant potential to bring back the memories of the Great Depression of 1930s, if not addressed soon.

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