Chasing the monsoon

While it is still early days to get an accurate picture of the monsoon rains India is likely to get this year, the initial consensus view based on the monsoon model developed by Indian scientists and statisticians suggests that a normal monsoon is to be expected. It would take a very foolhardy and risk-prone analyst to try and offer any other kind of prediction at this stage. Even though the impact of El Nina and El Nino, the two weather systems that have an impact on the course of the monsoon, can be estimated by the end of April, it would still be risky to predict anything but a normal south-west monsoon at this stage. While the El Nino factor (the warming of water in the Pacific Ocean) is not expected to thwart the south-west monsoon this year, the La Nina factor (the cooling of water in the Pacific Ocean) is in fact expected to favour a normal south-west monsoon.

Even so, there are many nebulous variables that statisticians have not yet been able to come to grips with. This makes the monsoon model less than precise, even when the general trend is more or less clear. Moreover, there are two aspects of the monsoon that few existing models have been able to come to grips with. First, the time distribution of rainfall and, second, its spatial distribution. Even a statistically normal monsoon may end up being sub-optimal if the rainfall gets concentrated in the early or late phase of the monsoon, and if it is confined to only some parts of the sub-continent. Normal spatial spread and reasonable rainfall through the monsoon months, which starts in end-May in Kerala and covers the entire sub-continent only by mid-July, would ensure the best result in terms of water availability, storage and utilisation.

Improving storage and managing uneven spreads is the key to overcoming the tyranny of the monsoon. Indeed, the history of the sub-continent has been little more than the history of the human endeavour to chase, tame and store the monsoon! Historian Karl Wittfogel’s hypothesis about what he dubbed as the ‘hydraulic societies’, that is, societies dependent on storing and managing large quantities of water, defines the social and political history of the Indian sub-continent. Wittfogel theorised that monsoon-dependent India had to store water and build dams for this purpose, as well as draw on river and tank water, and this required effective and centralised governmental authorities that monopolised power and dominated the economy. While India has developed to become a democracy, it still needs an efficient and effective government to manage the storage and distribution of large quantities of water. In good monsoon years this is much less of a challenge than in bad monsoon years. But, good or bad, the monsoon requires management of water and the key to mastering the monsoon is in fact to create and maintain social, political and economic institutions that facilitate better water management. Getting a normal monsoon is only half the battle won. In any case this is not in human hands. The human challenge comes after the monsoon has arrived when heaven’s bounty has to be stored, managed and distributed. Improving the management of water is something humans can do. Ensuring a good monsoon is in divine hands!