Divide and win

Threats from US primaries to the liberal international order

Till last week, it was hard to take Donald Trump or Bernie Sanders seriously as US presidential candidates for, respectively, the Republican and Democratic parties. But as things stand, their unexpectedly strong performances at the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary demand second thoughts - and considerable concern at the signals emanating from American politics. Rarely has a US election campaign seen such extreme polarisation on grounds of race, gender, welfare policies, taxation and even global politics, expressed in idioms that would have seemed quaintly dated had the candidates not considered them articles of faith.

Mr Trump's unabashed white supremacist agenda on the stump, as expressed in his condemnation of Mexicans and Muslims, cowboy approach to the complex West Asian crisis, crude sexism and a populist taxation blueprint were mostly grist for the talk show joke-mill and among the influential liberal commentariat. At best, the New York real estate mogul, best known for sharp business practices, a reality TV show, multiple wives and a weird haircut, had been considered comic relief. Likewise, Mr Sanders' gauche old-style leftism - free health care and education, anti-trade rhetoric, disengagement from international peacekeeping, and talk of a "political revolution" - was regarded as no match for the experienced, urbane, well-funded Hillary Clinton. Iowa, a quintessential Middle America state, defied the odds on both candidates, with Mr Trump a close second to Mr Cruz, and Mr Sanders almost tying with Ms Clinton. New Hampshire, part of the liberal tradition, proved the bigger shocker, returning Mr Trump a winner by almost 20 percentage points, while Mr Sanders romped ahead with 60.4 per cent of the Democratic vote.

These trends may be of a piece with developments in Europe which is veering towards xenophobia and racism. But that continent has seen a prolonged economic slowdown exacerbated by a serious refugee crisis. The US has seen the job market steadily recover and its economy back on track. It appears that this recovery has not dented the larger fears that the new, globalised economy and international order forged by the US since 1989 has not created a better future for its middle class. The world faces the very real possibility that both major parties in the US will nominate anti-globalisation populists as their presidential candidates. The spread of the European disease to the US - which much more than the European Union serves as the backbone of the liberal international order - is bad news indeed. Mr Trump and Mr Sanders appear keen to drag the only super-power in directions that bodes ill for the world, especially at a time when China is inclined to flex the more unattractive elements of its rising global power. The remaining primaries will be very closely watched.