Shock & awe, Saudi style

The crown prince's purge destabilises West Asia afresh

The weekend purge in West Asia’s most stable regime adds an additional element of unpredictability and instability to a region that is still suffering the political dislocation and human rights crises of the Syrian civil war and the fight against the Islamic State. The official explanation for the arrest of 11 princes, including the well-known Al Waleed bin Talal, a billionaire with extensive business interests in the US and Europe, and the sacking of another who headed the House of Saud’s praetorian guard plus dozens of businessmen and officials should not be taken at face value. As China has shown, anti-corruption drives can be a convenient alibi for consolidating personal power. There is no reason to suppose the ambitious 32-year-old Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, having overthrown his cousin Mohammad bin Nayef in June, is any different. Nor has the purge been peaceful; at least two princely challengers have died in mysterious circumstances.

It is also unclear whether the young prince’s abrupt abandonment of the age-old system of ruling by family consensus should be viewed in an unambiguously positive light. Admittedly, Prince Salman’s moves against the powerful Wahhabi clerics, whose extreme brand of Islam has dominated the kingdom since its founding in 1932, have met with approbation. The decision to allow women to drive has been praised as a courageous first step towards their emancipation. A $50-billion investment plan in renewable energy is viewed as a sign of the oil-rich kingdom’s move away from its dependence on fossil fuel. Plans to list Aramco, the state-owned oil producer, on the New York Stock Exchange also signal greater transparency. Whether all this adds up to the start of genuine reforms or is a mere sop to encourage western powers – Donald Trump has already tweeted fulsome praise – to support the young prince remains an open question. Certainly, arresting Prince Talal, a long-time promoter of liberalisation and reform, sits oddly with Prince Salman’s ostensible liberalising proclivities.

This internal turmoil comes just as the kingdom faces some of its biggest external challenges. Oil prices have been soft for a long period, though they have been surging of late, and the Sunni Saudi’s proxy war in Yemen with its biggest regional rival, Shi-ite Iran, is going nowhere — despite serial bombing, the Iran-backed Houthis still occupy capital Sana’a. Its attempt to destabilise Tehran and the Hezbollah, most recently by pressuring the democratically elected Lebanese prime minister to resign, has backfired. At the same time, in a strange twist, Shia Iran and Sunni Iraq are allying to counter resurgent Kurdish separatism. The Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council’s boycott of Qatar has failed. Meanwhile, the humdinger $110-billion arms deal, the centrepiece of Mr Trump’s triumphal West Asia visit, has not translated into major orders for American defence manufacturers. As the sponsors of Pakistan and state terrorism, all of this raises levels of uncertainty in South Asia, too. West Asia expert Bruce Riedel says splintering the royal family, killing opponents and encouraging sectarian violence are dangerous approaches for the young prince as he seeks to succeed his octogenarian father. Clearly, the United State’s biggest client state in West Asia, after Israel, is about to witness unprecedented turmoil since its founding.