Sunil Jain: Roller-coaster ride

A host of indices, such as the UBS Lead Economic Indicators and the ABN Amro Purchasing Managers’ Index, suggest that a recovery is round the corner, and they could well be right. But a little caution is in order. The naukri.com jobs index, on white collar jobs, for instance, went up in February (the index was out in mid-March), but the March figures show an even bigger decline. The index went up by 6 per cent in January, and by 5 per cent in February, but fell 8 per cent in March.

Though the index is by no means the last word on employment in the country, naukri happens to India’s top job site — the index is based on the number of new jobs that are posted on naukri’s website by recruiters who are the company’s clients, and these firms account for a significant share of white collar employment in the country. While every sector saw a decline, the worst falls took place in insurance, banking, oil and gas, and finance. One possibility, and this is why you need to keep your fingers crossed, was that companies wanted to show better results and so didn’t want to hire in March — next month’s JobSpeak should clear this doubt.