Five-phase Bihar polls from October 12

The toughest 57 seats could decide who gets to rule Bihar in the next 5 years

The toughest 57 seats that could decide who gets to rule Bihar in the next five years will go to the polls in the final round of the five-phase polls the Election Commission of India (EC) announced on Wednesday. The phase-wise elections will also be an opportunity for the more organised of the two main rival alliances to wait as long as possible before announcing their candidates.

The 57 seats, of a total of 243, are scheduled to go to polls on November 5. These are in Seemanchal and surrounding areas, where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance lost substantially in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections while sweeping the rest of the state, riding the Narendra Modi wave.

At the time, the BJP, with its allies, Upendra Kushwaha's Rashtriya Loktantrik Samata Party and Ram Vilas Paswan-led Lok Janshakti Party, lost only nine of Bihar's 40 seats in the Lok Sabha. Six of these nine losses were in Seemanchal - Supaul, Katihar, Araria, Kishanganj, Purnia and Madhepura. These districts, along with Madhubani, Saharsa and Darbhanga, go to polls on November 5.

The word from the BJP is that on seats where it foresees a tough contest, it might wait for the rival alliance - comprising Rashtriya Janata Dal, Janata Dal (United) and Congress - to announce their list. This will help the BJP gets its caste equation right and exploit contradictions within Nitish Kumar's JD(U) and Lalu Prasad's RJD.

The BJP hopes to consolidate the inroads it made among youth of the other backward caste (OBC) votes in the Lok Sabha elections, particularly Yadavs. It could field Yadav candidates on seats where the JD(U) puts up non-Yadav OBCs. Insiders say, it could wait until the last moment before announcing candidates.

BJP strategists believe many young voters in Bihar will overcome caste loyalties to vote for PM's message of development. Of the electorate of 66.82 million, an estimated half is below 40 years, 18 million are below 30 and 2.4 million are first-time voters.

BIHAR ASSEMBLY POLLS

The Election Commission of India on Wednesday announced a five-phase polling schedule for the 243 seats of Bihar Assembly. It said it would make all efforts to ensure communal harmony as the elections would take place during important festivals like Dussehra, Eid, Muharram, Diwali and Chhath. In a first, the electronic voting machines would also carry photographs of candidates apart from their name, name of the political party and the party symbol