Old faces, new realities: Sangma, Rio, Saha will have to walk a tightrope

Even as BJP bridges gap between Northeast and rest of India with each election win and electorate opted for continuity over change, CM Sangma, Rio, and Saha will have to walk a tightrope

Conrad Sangma

Chief Minister, Meghalaya

Uneasy Lies The Head

Conrad Kongkal Sangma may have become chief minister of Meghalaya for the second time with the support of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and other coalition partners after he failed to win a majority (with just 26 seats of the 60), but uneasy lies the head that wears the crown.

He has forged together an alliance that looks extremely unstable, as the traditional rivalry between the Khasi and Garo Hills surfaces.

It needed no astrologer to predict instability: ahead of the 2023 Assembly elections, his National People’s Party (NPP) and the BJP, which contested as allies in 2018, parted ways.

In the last Assembly, Sangma, who is NPP supremo, led the ruling six-party Meghalaya Democratic Alliance (MDA). The BJP, which had two Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs) in the state, was part of MDA.

The MDA government was the third coalition to last its full term in power in the state in over 50 years.

However, cordial ties between the two parties turned sour over the past five years.

Conrad, who broke the alliance, was upset at the way an ally broke his party. BJP poached on NPP. Four MLAs from Meghalaya - Ferlin Sangma, Samuel Sangma, Benedic Marak, and Himalaya Muktan Shangpliang - joined the BJP in Delhi before the elections.

Conrad comes from a political family - his father, Purno Agitok Sangma, was a member of the Congress for years – and is seen as a young and ambitious politician who wants to make it big in the Northeast.

But he is also one of the most vocal about identity and religion. He has argued that the uniform civil code is a bad idea as it does not go with the culture of Meghalaya.

He is bitterly opposed to the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) and has asked that Meghalaya and Assam be exempted from CAA. Meghalaya is a Christian majority.

The big question is: what will Conrad’s stand now be on contentious issues, including CAA?

Neiphiu Rio

Chief Minister, Nagaland

War In Peace

Nagaland Chief Minister (CM) Neiphiu Rio has two deputy CMs, nine ministers, 24 Members of Legislative Assembly as ‘advisors’ to various departments: and no Opposition, for the second time in the history of Nagaland.

Also for the first time, the ruling Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (25 seats) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (12) alliance retained power in Nagaland for a second consecutive term: the alliance won 37 seats together in the 60-member Assembly. With this, Rio has become CM for the fourth time.

However, the crucial issue that was the underpinning of the poll, the Naga accord – known as the framework agreement - that would settle the issue of Greater Nagaland, is still to be decided. A lot hinges on the political position of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Isak-Muivah), or NSCN(I-M).

The NSCN(I-M) says “the unpredictable situation was created when the Government of India started to show disdain for the framework agreement”, adding “such flip-flops on the framework agreement forced NSCN(I-M) to call for emergency national assembly on May 31, 2022, at the general headquarters, Naga Army, when a resolution was passed to uphold and protect Nagas’ unique history and national principle at any cost…”

The Rio government alone will not be able to decide the fate of Greater Nagaland. And Nagas from Nagaland are clear that Thuingaleng Muivah, a Manipuri Naga, cannot become their leader.

In February, the Naga National Political Groups (NNPG), a group of seven Naga insurgent outfits which were party to the peace talks, said that even after five years of governance and the conclusion of negotiations, the Centre and the state government have not been able to understand the Naga sentiment. Significantly, this followed a meeting between NSCN(I-M) and NNPG in 2022.

What all this means is that although Nagaland has no legislative Opposition, an extra-legislative Opposition is already in place. Rio will, therefore, have to work around these groups, and simultaneously sell the sabka saath, sabka vikas narrative in a Christian-majority state.

Manik Saha 

Chief Minister, Tripura

Suturing Identity

It is not often that a state has two chief ministers (CMs) of the same name.

Under Manik Sarkar, the Left Front in Tripura ruled for 25 years with minimal challenges: until it was conclusively and thoroughly defeated by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in 2018. It took more than three years for Tripura to get another Manik in the saddle.

A dentist, 69-year-old Manik Saha replaced Biplab Deb as CM in 2022. He has become CM again. He was with the Congress before joining the BJP, but rose rapidly, becoming state president from 2020 to 2022. Saha was picked by Deb himself when the latter became CM and had to step down from the presidentship of the party. But he soon overtook his mentor. He was appointed CM months before the Assembly polls. BJP’s seat tally came down from 36 in 2018 to 32 this time and its vote share was also diminished — 39 per cent, from 43.59 per cent in 2018.

Its biggest challenge now comes from Tipraha Indigenous Progressive Regional Alliance (TIPRA Motha), a party of indigenous tribals who have been demanding a separate homeland, something the ruling party has rejected flatly.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah held a marathon meeting with TIPRA Motha chief and erstwhile royal Pradyot Bikram Manikya Deb Barma and 13 Members of Legislative Assembly of his party soon after Saha had taken oath. For the moment, TIPRA Motha is supporting the BJP.

Saha has been appointed CM and is a loyal soldier. He is neither flamboyant nor overly assertive, quite unlike his colleague in neighbouring Assam, Himanta Biswa Sarma. He will follow central directives unquestioningly.